Mary Upton (Dublin South Central, Labour)
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Question 10: To ask the Minister for Finance his latest projections for average unemployment for each of the years 2009 and 2010; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [31344/08]

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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In view of the changing global economic environment and the slowing domestic construction sector, the prospects for employment have weakened in 2008. In July of this year my Department forecast that survey-based unemployment would average 5.8% this year. My Department is currently updating its economic and fiscal forecasts in the context of the latest information that is becoming available. Accordingly, updated forecasts for unemployment this year and for 2009 and 2010 will be published on budget day, 14 October.

However, as I indicated to Deputies Burton and Bruton, I am anxious that the Opposition spokespersons be given every possible assistance in respect of economic forecasting and while a definitive forecast will be given in the budget, whatever information is at the disposal of my Department following the completion of the third quarterly review will be made available to the Deputies.

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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Does the Minister agree, as has been publicly announced, that unemployment is already over 6%? This is the most recent figure. I do not know who wrote the brief for the Minister today but things have got worse since July. We have figures regarding unemployment that relate to the end of August and early September and these show 6.1%. Does the Minister share the analysis of the ESRI that the unemployment rate is likely to hit 7%, a total of 300,000 people, by Christmas? Does he agree that in the first three months of the new year it is likely to go up by a further 1% to approximately 8%? That is what the ESRI has stated.

After his appointment the Minister bounded into this Chamber like the Duracell bunny to glorify the ESRI's medium-term forecast. That was just before the House rose for the summer when the Labour Party called for a debate about the state of the economy. The Minister was delighted by the ESRI's forecast. Mr. Barrett of that organisation attended the think-ins of the Labour Party and Fine Gael and perhaps also that of Fianna Fáil. I believe the ESRI was at all of them. Mr. Barrett indicated that unemployment would rise to 7% by the end of the year. That is 300,000 people and a probable rate of 8% to follow. As the Minister said earlier today, all the indicators keep getting worse as this recession deepens. What is the Minister's real figure? Does he share the ESRI analysis?

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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The Minister has time for a brief reply only.

Brian Lenihan Jnr (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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My Department will arrive at a full figure when all the data is assembled from the ESRI, whose views are always entitled to the highest respect, and from other relevant organisations.