Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)

Does the Minister agree, as has been publicly announced, that unemployment is already over 6%? This is the most recent figure. I do not know who wrote the brief for the Minister today but things have got worse since July. We have figures regarding unemployment that relate to the end of August and early September and these show 6.1%. Does the Minister share the analysis of the ESRI that the unemployment rate is likely to hit 7%, a total of 300,000 people, by Christmas? Does he agree that in the first three months of the new year it is likely to go up by a further 1% to approximately 8%? That is what the ESRI has stated.

After his appointment the Minister bounded into this Chamber like the Duracell bunny to glorify the ESRI's medium-term forecast. That was just before the House rose for the summer when the Labour Party called for a debate about the state of the economy. The Minister was delighted by the ESRI's forecast. Mr. Barrett of that organisation attended the think-ins of the Labour Party and Fine Gael and perhaps also that of Fianna Fáil. I believe the ESRI was at all of them. Mr. Barrett indicated that unemployment would rise to 7% by the end of the year. That is 300,000 people and a probable rate of 8% to follow. As the Minister said earlier today, all the indicators keep getting worse as this recession deepens. What is the Minister's real figure? Does he share the ESRI analysis?

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