Gerald Nash (Louth, Labour)
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238. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform if he will commit to a more consistent and transparent methodological approach and in terms of the presentation of data in respect of 'Existing Levels of Service' or ELS in relation to the annual budget process; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50473/25]

Jack Chambers (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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The Summer Economic Statement (“SES”) published in July this year set out the parameters for Budget 2026. €116.6 billion will be made available next year. This reflects a total uplift of €7.9 billion of which €5.9 billion will be for current expenditure and an additional €2 billion for capital expenditure.

Budget 2026 will take a whole of budget approach placing greater emphasis on the totality of expenditure and what is being delivered for our growing population. Previous approaches to the Budget strategy set out a specific ELS and “new measures” figure with a subsequent focus on the additional funding being provided. This categorisation did not fully reflect the increased inputs and outputs being delivered; for example the number of primary and post primary school teachers increased by over 9,200 from 67,747 (in 2019/20) to 76,961 (in 2023/24) driven by a number of different factors including policy changes to pupil teacher ratio, demographic profile and the geographical location of pupils.

The approach being taken this year allows for a greater emphasis on the achievement of value for money. By examining the totality of the allocation provided to each Department reforms and efficiencies can be identified. By doing so Departments can reprioritise the existing allocation to deliver more tangible results. As part of Budget 2026 my Department has written to all Departments and asked that potential reforms or areas where reforms are currently underway be put forward with a view to achieving this. It is important that we can demonstrate how spending translates into service delivery and where it can deliver the greatest impact for citizens. This is a key part of Budget discussions.

In addition, this approach has been informed by the work undertaken by my Department in the preparation of a new Medium Term Expenditure Framework. The Medium Term Framework looks at the totality of expenditure through the lens of three key pillars; Adequacy, Sustainability and Efficiency. It highlighted that over the last 5 years expenditure has grown by €36 billion, or at an annual average growth rate of 9 per cent. Of this increase, approximately €15 billion or 40 per cent relates to current expenditure in critical areas such as Health and Social Protection; €4.8 billion to fund the cost of the public sector workforce excluding the Health sector; and a further €7.4 billion for capital investment. This level of investment has provided for an increase in the scope and intensity of public services including through increasing eligibility, expansion of subsides/policies and the introduction of new policies, the reinforcing of the high levels of adequacy in the large sectors of Social Protection and Health in particular, and significant expansion of the public sector workforce with additional c. 66,500 public servants. Notably, the Report demonstrated that policy changes were the most significant cost driver in many areas. These findings are a key input when considering the final allocation of Budget 2026.

My Department regularly publishes detailed analytical papers concerning expenditure trends and developments and in addition we have recently published the Medium Term Expenditure Framework and the National Development Plan.

The Expenditure Report will be published on Budget Day, October 7th, and will set out details of the 2026 allocation by Vote Group with further information being made available in the Revised Estimate Volume which will be published later this year.