Mark Wall (Kildare South, Labour)
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1324. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government when the national planning framework revision figures will be published; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [20624/25]

James Browne (Wexford, Fianna Fail)
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The National Planning Framework (NPF), 2018 is the long-term, 20-year strategy for strategic planning and sustainable development of our urban and rural areas to 2040, with the core objectives of securing balanced regional development and a sustainable ‘compact growth’ approach to the form and pattern of future development. The NPF is based on the demographic and econometric projections undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

The Government is currently at the last stage of finalising the First Revision to the NPF that was originally published in 2018, with the revision process taking account of demographic changes that have taken place since then and changes in projected population growth to 2040, as well as the continued need to plan for the provision of services in areas where growth is being experienced.

The ESRI was engaged to update their previous projections relating to population growth to 2040, based on demographic and econometric modelling and having regard to the results of Census 2022 and other factors with potential to influence fertility, mortality and migration trends.

The ESRI projections are high level, and further work is being undertaken in relation to the implications for structural housing demand at a regional and local authority level. The draft First Revision of the NPF, approved by Government this month, indicates that in the period between 2022 and 2040 it is expected that there will be roughly an extra one million people living in Ireland over Census 2022 levels.

Having regard to the ESRI projections and the Department’s own projections, this will give rise to a need to plan for approximately 50,000 new homes per annum to 2040.

The final Revised NPF will provide the basis for the review and updating of Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSESs) and local authority development plans to reflect matters such as updated housing figures, projected jobs growth and renewable energy capacity allocations, including through the zoning of land for residential, employment and a range of other purposes.

Noting the urgency associated with the scaling up of housing delivery, it is intended to issue a policy direction to local authorities following finalisation of the Revision process, in order to enable rapid implementation of updated planned housing requirements, by local authority area, into the current development plans.

The Government also approved revised housing targets on 5 November 2024 for the period 2025 to 2030. The targets are set at a national level and provide for the delivery of at least 303,000 new homes over the period, at an average of 50,000 per annum, rising to an annual delivery of 60,000 by 2030. The targets draw on the ESRI’s demographic and econometric modelling of population growth and structural housing demand to 2040.

Work on translating the revised national housing targets into local authority and tenure specific targets for social, affordable, and private rental and private ownership homes is ongoing. This work will be finalised in the coming weeks, once the Revised National Planning Framework has been approved by both Houses of Oireachtas.