Niall Collins (Limerick County, Fianna Fail)
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382. To ask the Minister for Housing, Planning, and Local Government if his attention has been drawn to the view of industry representative groups and civil society groups in Limerick and the mid-west that the population and housing requirement projections in the draft National Planning Framework are insufficient and, if not increased, the region will be disadvantaged; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [36396/24]

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal, Fianna Fail)
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The draft revised National Planning Framework was published on 10 July 2024 and has undergone a 9-week public consultation process which closed on 12 September 2024. Submissions have been received in relation to the draft from a range of public bodies and agencies, sectoral groups and members of the public and these submissions are currently being reviewed by my Department, with consideration being given to whether amendments are required to be applied to the document before it is submitted for final approval.

A cornerstone policy of both the existing and the draft revised National Planning Framework (NPF) is the achievement of a greater regional balance in population and employment growth. The goal is to see a roughly 50:50 distribution of growth between the Eastern and Midland region, and the respective Southern, and Northern and Western Regions, with 75% of the growth to take place outside of Dublin and its suburbs.

Ministerial Guidelines published under Section 28 of the Planning and Development Act 2000 on ‘Housing Supply Target Methodology for Development Planning’ complement the objectives of the NPF and have introduced a standardised national approach, to be applied by each planning authority in projecting Housing Supply Targets in their Development Plan over the six-year period of each plan.

Specific housing targets for both urban and rural areas in each local authority functional area are currently set out in the respective Core Strategies of the 31 City and County Development Plans (as may be applicable) having regard to the hierarchy of settlements of different scales in each local authority area and informed by the targets contained in the 2018 NPF and reflected in the Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies.

The recent results from Census 2022 shows a national population increase of c.390,000, and c.175,000 of this growth occurred in the two regional areas outside of the EMRA region, a proportional split of 55%/45%. This is an improvement when compared with the pre-NPF trends which saw larger population concentration in the eastern region.

The draft First Revision to the NPF, in the same manner as the 2018 NPF, also targets the five cities (Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway and Waterford) for 50% of overall national growth, with large and smaller towns, villages and rural areas accommodating the other 50%. City-based population and employment growth is an important target for the NPF. NPO2(a) of the strategy sets “A target of half (50%) of future population and employment growth will be focused in the existing five cities and their suburbs” as a means of ensuring cities deliver as ‘accessible centres of scale’. The proportion of national population growth achieved in the period to 2022 in the five cities was 124,543 persons or 32% of overall growth. Census 2022 indicates that Limerick (+8%) had a growth rate similar to national average of 8%.

Notwithstanding the challenges to delivering on city-focused growth targets, the Draft Revised NPF strategy maintains the ambitious targets for the cities, with the focus being on the need for enhanced mechanisms to support delivery.

As part of the broader body of work undertaken to inform the draft First Revision to the NPF, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) was engaged to provide updated population projections to 2040, based on demographic and econometric modelling and having regard to the results of Census 2022 and other factors with potential to influence fertility, mortality and migration trends. Under the baseline scenario, the research projects that the population of the State will increase to approximately 5.7 million people by 2030 and 6.1 million by 2040. This projection forms the central core trajectory of projected population growth and underpins the strategy set out in the draft First Revision to the NPF.

The proposed revised NPF plans to apply the additional population on a pro-rata basis, relative to current NPF targets, throughout Ireland. A new element of NPF strategy also involves the identification of opportunities to undertake longer term strategic planning for Transport Orientated Development (TOD) in Ireland’s five Cities to support the delivery of new sustainable communities at brownfield and greenfield locations along existing or planned high capacity public transport corridors. In terms of identifying locations for further growth and housing development at scale, it is critical that planning for these opportunities is aligned with phased infrastructure provision.

Further to the publication of the Draft Revised NPF for public consultation in July 2024, I wrote to local authorities confirming that in the period pending finalisation and approval of the updated NPF and the further work which will be required following finalisation of the NPF Revision process, it would be appropriate to undertake a preliminary assessment of the quantum of zoned and serviced land within their administrative area that is available for residential purposes and to estimate the overall housing capacity of such lands.

The ongoing shift to more regionally-balanced growth supported by urban centres of scale will be important in ensuring effective regional development and in supporting competitiveness, economic prosperity and environmental sustainability.

It is envisaged that the final revised NPF will be published in October 2024, once it has been approved by the Oireachtas.