Richard Bruton (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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70. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform how the evaluation contained in the summer economic statement will alter his assessment of the profiles of current and capital spending in the years ahead; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [29482/24]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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In drafting the Summer Economic Statement (SES) my Department and the Department of Finance evaluate the economic landscape and assess the overall revenue and expenditure position in terms of adequacy and sustainability over the short to medium-term. On an ongoing basis, departmental profiles of expenditure are examined every month as part of the Exchequer issues and returns process while decisions at an individual vote level are made at the time of the Budget each year.

The Medium Term Expenditure Strategy (MTES) was published in the SES 2021 and reflected the prevailing economic landscape at that time. Since then the Irish economy has been subjected to a number of external shocks; price pressures due to strong demand after exiting the pandemic and supply side issues, both compounded by the war in Ukraine, led to increasing cost pressures on households and businesses. The Government's response to these events was through a combination of once-off and permanent measures, which successfully managed to maintain a sustainable level of investment in public services over the short and medium term, while also providing a range of temporary and permanent cost of living measures that provided the greatest proportional support to those on lower incomes.

The current and capital ceilings for 2025 published in the SES today have been framed in the context of a continued need to improve public services and infrastructure that will support a growing population and growth in our economy next year. The strong recovery in our economy has delivered record levels of employment with a projected almost 2.8 million in employment next year compared to just over 2.3 million pre-pandemic. The growth in employment has been accompanied by strong growth in the population that is well above previous estimates, with the latest CSO estimate for the national population in 2023 being just under 5.3 million. Based on recent trends, Ireland’s population in 2025 will be at a level previously estimated for the end of this decade.

As set out in the SES 2024, for 2025 total expenditure will increase by €6.9 billion or 6.9 per cent. This will result in total available current resources of €90.9 billion and capital expenditure of €14.5 billion. The total expenditure ceiling for 2025 of €105.4 billion will facilitate a budget that can:

• provide further increased levels of investment in the NDP; we are increasing the amount provided to capital by €1.4 billion (a 10.6% increase) year on year for 2025,
• accommodate new measures in line with Government priorities including in relation to measures funded from the National Training Fund;
• cater for increased demand in existing service delivery from an increased population by increasing current expenditure by €5.5 billion (6.4%) over the 2024 allocation;
• continue to fund measures required to respond to external shocks from the Contingency Reserve.