Pearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein)
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152. To ask the Minister for Finance to provide a recalculation of the fiscal space available over the next five years based on the figures noted in the information box on the possible economic impact of a British exit from the European Union in the Summer Economic Statement; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [19741/16]

Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)
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The Summer Economic Statement (SES) included a macroeconomic assessment of the impact of a UK decision to leave the European Union. This decision will have an adverse impact on the growth outlook. In this context, the more traditional exporting sectors are particularly exposed, especially to bilateral euro sterling exchange rate developments. My Department's initial estimate, based on the assessment in the SES, is that GDP growth could be about 0.5% lower than projected in 2017.

The fiscal space of just under €1 billion for 2017 set out in the Summer Economic Statement is not expected to change very much because the factors used to calculate it are largely fixed at this stage.

Looking to 2018 and beyond, the estimates of fiscal space depend on the impact on our macroeconomic and fiscal position. At this point, it is far too early to speculate on the potential impacts.

As noted in the Summer Economic Statement, the Department of Finance will prepare a full macroeconomic projection in advance of Budget 2017 in October, and this will include updated estimates of economic growth, the public finances and the fiscal space, taking account of developments up to that time, including the UK decision.

However, it is important to note that there is uncertainty around many aspects of the impact of the UK decision, and particularly the economic and fiscal impact.

As you are aware, a whole-of-government contingency framework has been put in place in response to the UK vote, within which key policy issues, including economic developments, will continue to be tracked and the Budget 2017 forecasts will be a critical part of that process.

Finally, the prudent economic and fiscal policies implemented over recent years have placed Ireland in a stronger position to weather this shock. Our economy is growing strongly, employment has increased for 14 successive quarters, unemployment has fallen to 7.8%, the deficit this year is expected to be 0.9%, and the debt has fallen from a peak of 120% to an expected 88% at the end of this year. The Government is confident that our economy is resilient and that appropriate economic and fiscal policies are in place to deal with the challenges arising.