Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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Question 77: To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Food if his attention has been drawn to the predictions by Teagasc economists that Ireland will have 12,000 dairy farmers in 2014 but only 9,000 if there is an unfavourable trade agreement; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [43978/08]

Brendan Smith (Cavan-Monaghan, Fianna Fail)
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I have noted the contents of Teagasc's recently published medium-term outlook, which analyses prospects for the period 2008 to 2017. The findings are a reflection of the challenging environment facing the agriculture sector over the period. The dairy sector is not immune from these challenges. However, it is the manner in which we and the whole industry respond to these challenges that will determine whether the predictions prove to be accurate.

The current environment is a volatile one. High milk prices in 2007 led to greater supply and demand pressures in the marketplace, and these, combined with the effects of the global economic downturn, have put significant downward pressure on prices in 2008. However, policy needs to be driven by a consideration of the long-term outlook rather than short-term volatility. In this regard prospects are generally very positive, with a sustained increase in global demand for dairy products anticipated over the next decade and beyond. Ireland needs to position itself to take advantage of the opportunities presented by such developments.

The Government's strategy has been a three-pronged one. The first element has been the implementation of the €100 million Dairy Investment Fund aimed at stimulating the necessary investment at processing level to ensure the long-term competitiveness of the industry. The second has been the introduction of the Milk Quota Trading Scheme, which has brought a more open market approach to the transfer of milk quota and has ensured that larger volumes of quota than ever before are now getting into the hands of active, committed milk producers. The final element was delivered recently when I successfully concluded negotiations on the Health Check of the 2003 CAP reform. These delivered an outstanding outcome for the dairy sector in the form of substantial milk quota increases and the retention of the market management measures of key importance to Ireland. Most significantly, the outcome has provided a greater degree of policy certainty for the industry going forward.

Running parallel to these developments has been the latest round of WTO negotiations, which concluded unsuccessfully in Geneva in July. The Government has consistently voiced its concern that any WTO deal should be a balanced one, and I took every opportunity in Geneva to again raise our strong concerns about the agriculture proposals in particular. It remains to be seen when and in what direction the talks will now move, but my efforts will at all times be focused on achieving the best possible outcome for Irish agriculture.

Notwithstanding the WTO uncertainty, I believe the greater policy clarity at EU level means that it is now time to consider how best to exploit Ireland's milk production potential in order to secure the maximum possible long-term advantage for the dairy sector. To this end I have recently announced my intention to convene a Dairy Forum, which will consider, through consultation with the industry at producer and processor level, the important next steps on the road to making the Irish dairy sector the most competitive and efficient possible, while retaining as many people active in farming as possible.