Pat Casey (Fianna Fail)
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I tabled this Commencement matter to bring a degree of proportionality and transparency to the debate on the true impact of the pandemic on the hospitality sector.I believe that information is sorely missing.

I thank Senator Crowe for his intervention today. Every time, the industry's hopes are raised and then dashed. This has happened six times. The impact cuts deeper each time this happens. I am not just referring to the financial impact. At Christmas, our industry was blamed for the serious outbreak of the Oxford variant. Everyone in this Chamber and everybody in the public domain knows that they probably were more at risk of getting the disease if they were in a public space like a shopping centre that was packed before Christmas. Let us not forget the number of household parties that were being held before Christmas and the number of families that gathered for Christmas dinner in a small close environment. Yet the only thing in the media was "why did you open the hospitality sector?" It was not just the hospitality sector that was open before Christmas. As all retail and personal services opened, proportionality and transparency need to be brought to the debate. Seven months on, when our industry, that is, the restaurants and the pubs, were about to open again, the only thing in the media leading up to it was whether the Government would open indoor hospitality because of the arrival of the Delta variant. Then NPHET produced its modelling and referred to a narrow opening of indoor social activities or a wider opening of indoor social activities. To the public, that means indoor dining. One then adds the other variable. The question of whether someone is vaccinated refers to indoor dining. In respect of the doomsday scenario given to Government by NPHET, hospitality will not lead to 680,000 cases of Covid and will not lead to 2,127 deaths over the three months, as projected by NPHET. How society as a whole reacts in every sector, both in the workplace and in public, will lead to that. Perhaps the Government's message should be around how if we continue the way we are going, it will not be just hospitality that closes down. The whole country will be shut down. Perhaps if the Government gave out that message and showed the true transparency behind these figures, people might behave better and might stop being so relaxed, as we all have become in the current environment.

I know the Cabinet cannot answer my question. What percentage of the figures presented in the modelling by NPHET relate directly to hospitality and indoor dining because they do not exist? These are modelling figures. The Government and NPHET framed the debate around indoor hospitality and how, again, we are the sector that has brought this pandemic and will be the ones that will cause the exponential surge in cases, which is factually incorrect. I ask the Government and NPHET to be a bit more conscious of our industry and when they present figures, to present them in a transparent and factual manner and not lay the blame totally on our sector.

Anne Rabbitte (Galway East, Fianna Fail)
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I thank Senator Casey for raising this Commencement matter, which I am taking on behalf of the Minister for Health. I will clarify how the data presented by NPHET and communicated by Government relate directly to indoor dining and specifically in each of the five scenarios presented in table 1.

I welcome the opportunity to address the House and will begin by highlighting the significant and sustained progress that has been made in suppressing the virus over recent months due in no small part to the significant efforts of people across the country. This progress has been sustained during the recent reopening in April, May and June. Our vaccination programme continues to make significant progress. However, the increase in cases of the more transmissible Delta variant poses a significant threat to the progress made. Modelling shows that had we proceeded with the proposed relaxation of the public health restrictions from 5 July 2021, over the period to the end of September, under the most optimistic scenario, we could see 250 deaths, more than 1,500 hospitalisations and nearly 200 ICU admissions. Under the most pessimistic scenario, these modelling figures ranged to over 2,000 deaths, over 1,500 ICU admissions and nearly 13,000 hospital admissions. Even the central scenarios modelled would result in significant mortality and pressure on our hospital system that we simply cannot contemplate.

The models work by examining the levels of viral transmission that occurred in summer 2020 and inferring from that, having factored in the protective effect of vaccination but also the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and the likely level of viral transmission had we proceeded with the proposed relaxation of public health restrictions from 5 July 2021, including the full resumption of indoor hospitality. The phase 3 reopening of 29 June 2020, which included the reopening of the cafes, restaurants, pubs and hotel bars serving food and holiday parks, was associated with a step change in viral transmission, which was sustained through July and August with effective reproduction numbers increasing from below 1.0 to somewhere between 1.4 and 1.6. The models assume that the reopening of indoor hospitality would lead to at least similar levels of close indoor social mixing, which is an opportunity for viral transmission. This is a reasonable assumption and it is worth noting that the reopening of 29 June 2020 was more limited than the original plan for 5 July, as only pubs serving food opened in June 2020. The model then factors in the additional protection of the vaccination but also the additional transmissibility of the Delta variant. The models clearly demonstrated that if the Delta variant had not been introduced, we could have safely proceeded with the planned reopening of 5 July 2021. However, the models also clearly show the Delta variant becoming dominant and the very high risks that increased close social contact in the unvaccinated and partially vaccinated group would lead to a significant fourth wave of disease in terms of cases, severe disease, hospitalisation and mortality. The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in respect of infection in Ireland and internationally shows that the primary sites of transmission are private households; social gatherings, including hospitality; and workplaces. They are not independent, in that increased social mixing in hospitality and workplaces drives transmission into and between households. It is not possible, therefore, to precisely quantify how many cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths are directly attributable to indoor dining in each scenario. Based on the national and international epidemiological evidence, the resumption of indoor hospitality as a whole is likely to be the major contributor to the increase in cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths in each scenario. The Delta variant poses a very serious risk and I cannot overstate that.

NPHET advised that higher-risk activities involving significant levels of social mixing in indoor environments should only be permitted for those who are vaccinated or immune. Last Tuesday, the Government announced the next phase of reopening the economy and society. I will hand back to Senator Casey.

Pat Casey (Fianna Fail)
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I thank the Minister of State for her answer. All I am trying to do is get an open debate around the true impact of hospitality in respect of this virus. An example was given the other day of a pub in Waterford and how it caused 200 cases. That was an outdoor event. We need to bring some clarity to this. Our industry has behaved and responded in the best way it could, so we cannot question how it reacted to this. We have tried to find solutions. All I am asking for is a level of transparency regarding the true impact of our industry on this pandemic. I believe this is missing at the moment. All we are doing, and we did it at Christmas, is driving this activity underground. We are driving it into uncontrolled environments, which will only make matters worse than would be the case were the industry open.I am sorry for taking up the time. I thank the Minister of State for attending.

Anne Rabbitte (Galway East, Fianna Fail)
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I again thank the Senator. He is quite right. We all agree that we must have an honest conversation about the matter. It is not just one group or one sector which has responsibility. As a society, we have a responsibility for our actions. The public health guidelines have not changed since the very beginning, including a wearing mask, keeping one's distance and washing one's hands. The Government is committed to working with stakeholders across the affected sectors in the coming weeks. We must continue to protect the significant progress. Only yesterday, I was in Ballina with Deputy Calleary and, no different from anyone else, I sat outdoors. We have to wonder what the next step is. It is not sustainable for the industry. We need to get businesses back up and running. We need to get employees back to work. That is what Senator Casey is advocating for today and it is what we are hearing within Government, that we need to find a sustainable solution to get businesses back up and running, for livelihoods and for the economy.