Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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4. To ask the Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment if he will release the report on liquefied natural gas commissioned by his predecessor; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [17600/25]

Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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I welcome the students as well. It is always very interesting to visit here. I came into Leinster House when I was maybe eight or nine with Brendan Howlin and it was fascinating and has stuck with me.

It looks like LNG is the topic of the day. My question is about the release of that report. I welcome the fact that the Minister has said it will be released within a matter of weeks, but will he also refer to the GNI report? What is really important is that when we are having these discussions we all have the facts available to us. Any decision needs to be based on science and the facts.

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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As the Deputy rightly says, the Department engaged Cambridge Economic Policy Associates Limited to carry out an updated analysis of security of energy supply in Ireland covering the period beyond 2030 and up to 2040. This study builds on CEPA's technical analysis of the security of supply of Ireland's electricity and natural gas systems up to 2030, published in September 2022. That helped inform the review of Ireland's energy security review.

In November 2023, the previous Government approved and published the Energy Security in Ireland to 2030 report. That is the report I referred to earlier in response to Deputy Daly. It concluded that Ireland's future energy will be secure by moving from a fossil fuel-based energy system to an electricity-led system, maximising our renewable energy potential and flexibility and being integrated into Europe's energy systems.

With regard to gas, however, the report determines that as a transitional measure we will examine the introduction of a strategic gas emergency reserve to address security needs in the medium term. It will be used only if a disruption to gas supplies occurs.

Inability to meet peak gas demand during a cold spell would mean curtailing gas demand to balance the system. By 2030, our target is that 80% of our electricity is expected to be produced from renewables, meaning our overall gas demand is expected to decline. Having said that, the projections are peak gas demand will continue, or will not begin to decline, until about 2035. The electrification of the heat and transport sector will mean increased peak day electricity demand. During those periods where variable renewable generation is largely not available, gas backup is expected to be used, especially when support from batteries and electricity demand side response is exhausted. On this basis a strategic gas emergency reserve in the form of the FSRU has been approved by Government to secure Ireland's energy systems as a transitionary measure. A strategic gas emergency reserve will provide the resilience that was highlighted in that report to the gas system to mitigate the consequences for society and our economy of a significant gas supply disruption in Ireland.

Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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I thank the Minister. I may have misheard but I do not think he referred to the CEPA report.

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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I did. I will come back to it in the supplementary.

Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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It was quite noisy. My understanding, and this has been reported in the media, is the CEPA report offers an alternative view to the previous analysis done on energy security. It really is important because I understand the CEPA report says that by the time we get any emergency or transition measure in place, it will be very costly, but also there will not be a need for it at that stage. We could spend ten years and I believe €300 million putting in place infrastructure that will not be needed by then from a security perspective but which will lock us into a fossil fuel future none of us wants and which, from a statutory perspective, we must avoid at all costs.

It is interesting when the Minister talks about this "emergency" infrastructure. This is not the best language to use because it paints a very different picture of this reserve than what would happen in reality.

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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To answer the Deputy's question directly at the start, the analysis conducted by CEPA is under review in the Department now and I must review that. However, I can confirm the study finds Ireland will not meet the N-1 infrastructure standard for gas during the 2030s. The report finds the addition of an FSRU will allow Ireland to meet that standard and I will publish that in the coming weeks. I do not have a definitive date as I have got to review it, but it will be well in advance of summer. It is important all Deputies, regardless of people's view on this, get an opportunity to see that independent advice. While there is a significant capital spend when we proceed with the purchase of the floating terminal, once we are no longer using it we can sell it off. The port infrastructure will be used for other things so it is an investment in our country rather than a one-off spend. There will be annual management costs to this as well and it will be managed, operated and run by GNI.

Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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On the terminology of this being emergency infrastructure, I understand that every two months, because of the very nature of LNG, the gas will have to be distributed through the pipeline-----

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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Yes.

Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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-----so we are essentially just replacing the majority of the gas we are using at the moment with this system even though we are calling it temporary and saying it will only be used in case of disruption. To compare it to the oil reserve is incorrect because that does not have to be used every two months. We do not have to get rid of it out of the system and ensure everyone uses it as it just sits there. That is where the complication comes in as well.

I only have 20 seconds left, but I also wish to refer to how we sort of have two processes here. We have the potential for State-led LNG, which will come down to that analysis and there is discussion about whether we need it or not. There is also how the Government has not ensured that, under planning law, An Bord Pleanála cannot grant any commercial LNG facilities. These are two very separate things. When the High Court directed An Bord Pleanála to reconsider that LNG planning permission it said the policy documents were not strong enough. Is there going to be a very solid indication from Government we will not facilitate any commercial LNG or any commercial LNG operator and at the same time perhaps looking at this temporary measure that is to be State-owned?

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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The Deputy is aware of this, but I restate An Bord Pleanála is independent of Government. Applications are made. The potential development she refers to is a matter that has been before the courts and has been with An Bord Pleanála. I am not going to comment further other than to say Government will not intervene in that instance. It would not be appropriate for us to do so. Our focus is on the FSRU, which will be State-led and State-run. As to how that operates, gas is used every couple of months, but it is not going to be used for additional energy generation. It will be used instead of other gas. That is just how the mechanism and process works. It will not produce any additional energy. It will not increase our reliance on gas, but we need that reserve in case there is a disruption. Disruption to the connection with Britain via Scotland would cause incredible difficulties for this country, our society and our economy and I cannot ignore the advices there.

I fully stand over the decision Government has made and will publish the CEPA report.

Jennifer Whitmore (Wicklow, Social Democrats)
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And put it online.

Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail)
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Yes. We will share it with the Deputy.