Darragh O'Brien (Dublin Fingal East, Fianna Fail) | Oireachtas source

As the Deputy rightly says, the Department engaged Cambridge Economic Policy Associates Limited to carry out an updated analysis of security of energy supply in Ireland covering the period beyond 2030 and up to 2040. This study builds on CEPA's technical analysis of the security of supply of Ireland's electricity and natural gas systems up to 2030, published in September 2022. That helped inform the review of Ireland's energy security review.

In November 2023, the previous Government approved and published the Energy Security in Ireland to 2030 report. That is the report I referred to earlier in response to Deputy Daly. It concluded that Ireland's future energy will be secure by moving from a fossil fuel-based energy system to an electricity-led system, maximising our renewable energy potential and flexibility and being integrated into Europe's energy systems.

With regard to gas, however, the report determines that as a transitional measure we will examine the introduction of a strategic gas emergency reserve to address security needs in the medium term. It will be used only if a disruption to gas supplies occurs.

Inability to meet peak gas demand during a cold spell would mean curtailing gas demand to balance the system. By 2030, our target is that 80% of our electricity is expected to be produced from renewables, meaning our overall gas demand is expected to decline. Having said that, the projections are peak gas demand will continue, or will not begin to decline, until about 2035. The electrification of the heat and transport sector will mean increased peak day electricity demand. During those periods where variable renewable generation is largely not available, gas backup is expected to be used, especially when support from batteries and electricity demand side response is exhausted. On this basis a strategic gas emergency reserve in the form of the FSRU has been approved by Government to secure Ireland's energy systems as a transitionary measure. A strategic gas emergency reserve will provide the resilience that was highlighted in that report to the gas system to mitigate the consequences for society and our economy of a significant gas supply disruption in Ireland.

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