Mary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central, Sinn Fein)
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5. To ask the Taoiseach if he will report on the work of the economic division of his Department. [37284/19]

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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6. To ask the Taoiseach if he will report on the work of the economic division of his Department. [38481/19]

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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7. To ask the Taoiseach if he will report on the work of the economic division of his Department. [41382/19]

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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8. To ask the Taoiseach if he will report on the work of the economic division of his Department. [41984/19]

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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I propose to take Questions Nos. 5 to 8, inclusive, together.

The economic division in my Department assists me and the Government in developing and implementing policy to deliver sustainable and regionally balanced economic growth and quality jobs; to promote effective planning and delivery of infrastructure, including housing; to drive implementation of the climate action plan; and to ensure a whole-of-Government approach to data protection and broader digital issues.

My Department has a dedicated unit which works closely with the economic division on Brexit preparedness and contingency planning. This unit works closely with the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade which has lead responsibility in this area. It focuses on cross-Government co-ordination, planning and programme management, as well as communications on Brexit preparedness.

The economic division includes officials with a range of relevant economic qualifications. These include specialist staff recruited as part of the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service, IGEES, as well as staff with either PhD or masters qualifications in economic or other relevant policy disciplines, along with others with extensive experience dealing with economic and related policy issues.

The division assists the work of three Cabinet committees and associated senior officials groups. The Cabinet committee on the economy is responsible for all issues relating to the economy, including Future Jobs Ireland. The Cabinet committee on infrastructure works to ensure a co-ordinated approach to the delivery and ongoing development of policy across the areas of infrastructure investment and delivery, Project Ireland 2040 and Rebuilding Ireland. The Cabinet committee on the environment deals with issues relating to the environment, including the climate action plan.

The economic division leads Ireland's participation in the annual European semester. It prepares the annual national risk assessment which provides an opportunity to identify and consider strategic risks on a structured basis. The 2019 national risk assessment was published in August. It also liaises with the Central Statistics Office.

The division, in partnership with the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation, leads the Future Jobs Ireland initiative. This aims to ensure we are well-placed to meet future challenges facing the economy with a focus on quality and sustainable jobs.

The division provides me with briefing and speech material on economic and related policy issues. Given its role, the division works closely with colleagues in the Departments of Finance and Public Expenditure and Reform, as well as with colleagues in other Departments which have lead responsibility for specific policy areas.

Mary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central, Sinn Fein)
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Given that the Brexit deadline is only a couple of weeks away, I have no doubt that the economic division – in fact every division - of the Taoiseach’s Department is seized of the potential fallout of a disorderly Brexit. It seems there is now a possibility of an agreement. However, the reality of Brexit in any event is that there will be a fallout because it is bad news for the island, our economy and our peace agreements. The Taoiseach may have briefed Deputy Micheál Martin, his partner in government, as to the progress of discussions thus far. I know that we have not been briefed. I do not know what the circumstances are with other Opposition leaders.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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We have had no briefing either.

Mary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central, Sinn Fein)
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That is a mistake on the Taoiseach’s part. While not expecting to have the fine detail, we could at least have a sense of the flow of traffic on these matters. For my part, as the leader of an all-Ireland party, I would expect from the Taoiseach some briefing on issues like the matter of consent and how the Irish State envisages that to find application or expression through the Assembly.

I had a conversation with the Taoiseach’s counterpart - his other friend in government - Boris Johnson. He is clear, as I hope we all are, that there cannot be any unionist veto afforded on Brexit protections.

Does the Taoiseach intend to brief the Opposition on these matters? What form are discussions taking in respect of protection for the Good Friday Agreement? Is that happening bilaterally between the Government and the British Government or has the Government remained true to acting in concert with our other European partners?

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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Last week, the Government, with the support of Fianna Fáil, passed what has been rightly characterised as a regressive budget. The Taoiseach used the Brexit issue as a cover for a decision to reduce in real terms next year the income of a whole range of people dependent on social welfare. That was a wrong choice.

The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, on Monday rubbished any notion that the Government was trying to advance economic prudence last week. The IFAC chairman, Mr. Seamus Coffey, stated that "2018 was a particularly poor year for budgetary management in Ireland, with too many overruns, and this year [2019] looks much the same". Rather than carefully managing the economy through these periods, the Government has, as the ESRI, IFAC and others have noted, allowed for the explosion of costs on the national children's hospital, the broadband fiasco, and the housing crisis. Those are facts. What is the Taoiseach's response to the analysis of IFAC regarding the budget and the general economic performance of this Government?

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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On the day of the budget, I stated that it had effectively cut the incomes of workers, pensioners, students and those in receipt of social welfare such as disability allowance and carer's allowance. That regressive character of the budget and the injustice that the Government foisted on the vast majority of people under cover of the Brexit drama was confirmed by the ESRI, among others, at the end of last week. How can the Taoiseach possibly justify that, particularly when tax breaks, such as the special assignee relief programme, were retained? A tax break that benefits 789 of the richest and best paid people in this country allows them to have 30% of their extremely high incomes tax free and get the fees paid for their children. For example, according to Revenue, there are four persons earning between €3 million and €10 million a year getting this tax break, as are 14 earning between €1 million and €3 million and 26 earning between €675,000 and €1 million. It is shocking. The richest people with the highest incomes get this enormous tax break but there is not a cent for workers, carers, those on disability benefit and students suffering student poverty. In fact, there are cuts in their income. How can the Government possibly justify that?

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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Did the economic division of the Department carried out a budgetary impact analysis Essentially, there is broad cross-party agreement in this House to create more equality and progressiveness in how income is distributed and in how taxation is borne by different groups in society. On Friday morning last, the ESRI produced a damning analysis of how regressive Fine Gael's budget is. We all understand the demands of Brexit, but to make pensioner couples and lone parents the target of the sharpest measures against those on lower incomes in the budget at this time, Brexit or no Brexit, is disgraceful.

Some months ago at the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, ICTU, the Taoiseach announced how proud he was that the minimum wage would break through the €10 barrier, and yet his Ministers, later on budget evening, stated that the increase in the minimum wage, from €9.80 to €10.10 an hour, thus breaching the €10 barrier, to protect those on lowest incomes at work, would now be parked indefinitely. That was a bad decision by the Government. In terms of equality in this country, it puts poorer people at work - the people who get up in the morning and go to work - at an enormous disadvantage as a result of the Government's policies.

Seán Ó Fearghaíl (Kildare South, Ceann Comhairle)
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We will have no time for an answer. Deputy Micheál Martin needs to be brief.

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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A confusing aspect last week during the budget proceedings was how the Government placed all the stress on GDP growth and all the language was around GDP whereas in recent years the Government has spoken about how GNP and GNI are more accurate and relevant for judging the economy.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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GNI*.

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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Yes, GNI*. Deputy Howlin knows all about that. Both GNP and GNI* estimates for next year and subsequent years are significantly lower than the GDP figure, which is inflated by the activity of multinationals and that side of the economy. Will the Taoiseach explain why this change in approach has been implemented and the role of his Department's economic division in that?

On Brexit projections, it had been estimated that 80% of the economic damage to Ireland that a hard Brexit would cause would be in the context of east-west trade. The deal, which appears to be in the process of being discussed this week and last and negotiated now, involves a full hard Brexit for Great Britain and a softer Brexit for Northern Ireland. That may be all that is achievable. It is important that we are clear about what is involved in terms of the east-west dimension. That depends on the full trade agreement that ultimately has to be negotiated between Britain and Europe. Right now, we are at the exit stage. It seems Britain is now leaving the customs union, as opposed to the withdrawal agreement where the UK as a whole was in the customs union. That is potentially significant for east-west trade, where the bulk of the trade goes on. I would appreciate the Taoiseach's commentary on that.

Seán Ó Fearghaíl (Kildare South, Ceann Comhairle)
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We have one minute for an answer.

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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The Ceann Comhairle might allow three or four more minutes.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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Yes.

Seán Ó Fearghaíl (Kildare South, Ceann Comhairle)
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We will take two or three minutes but we are taking them from the third batch of questions.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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I will have to come back to Deputy Micheál Martin about the question on GDP, GNI and GNI*. I have a rough idea but I do not want to give the Deputy an inaccurate reply and have to correct it.

On the minimum wage, I want to clarify that the Government has accepted the Low Pay Commission's recommendation to increase the minimum wage to €10.10 per hour from January. However, that recommendation - this is in the recommendation made by the Low Pay Commission - is based on there being an orderly Brexit. If there is an orderly Brexit, there will be an increase in the minimum wage to €10.10 per hour in January. However, if there is not an orderly Brexit, then in line with the recommendation of the Low Pay Commission there will not be an increase in the minimum wage.

Ruth Coppinger (Dublin West, Solidarity)
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The workers pay for Brexit.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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We will have to see what happens between now and January. However, we accepted the recommendation to increase the minimum wage to €10.10 per hour from January in the event of there being an ordinary Brexit.

On whether the budget was regressive or progressive, that depends on how it is analysed and counted. The Department of Finance analysis states that it was progressive because the Department of Finance-----

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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Where did the Government publish that?

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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If it is not published, we will. I think it has been.

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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It has not.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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If it has not been, it will be. The Department of Finance analysis is based on cash. It is done in pure cash terms. On the Department's analysis, it is progressive because there are no cash increases for people who do not receive welfare because there were no tax cuts, with the exception of the self-employed and home carers. The vast majority of taxpayers did not get a tax cut. However, there were increases for lone parents and those living alone, in the fuel allowance, and for families on welfare with children. In cash terms, on the Department of Finance analysis, it was progressive.

The ESRI does it differently. It compares the actual budget with a notional budget in which taxes are indexed to earnings and welfare and pensions are indexed to earnings as well. For example, on the ESRI analysis, a 3% pay increase with no tax cut means the budget makes a person worse off because he or she is paying more tax, and a welfare or pension increase less than the rate of earnings growth means a person is worse off. It is done as a comparison against a notional budget in which tax credits, tax bands, welfare and pensions are indexed to earnings. Deputies may be interested to know that if the ESRI applied the same methodology to the Labour Party, Green Party and Sinn Féin alternative budgets, it would also conclude that those alternative budgets made everyone worse off-----

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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Has the Taoiseach got that analysis?

Richard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
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Not the People Before Profit alternative.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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-----because taxpayers did not get an increase in tax credits or a change of bands. All taxpayers were worse off under the Labour Party, Green Party and Sinn Féin proposals.

According to the ESRI, their proposals to increase welfare and pensions by less than 4.5% of average earnings would have made people in receipt of welfare payments and pensions worse off. It is an interesting analysis but that is the way the ESRI does it.

Brendan Howlin (Wexford, Labour)
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The Taoiseach's proposal was regressive in that it gave pensioners nothing, not even an extra €5.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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What is equally interesting is that neither analysis takes account of the value of increased public expenditure. Neither of them takes account of the fact that we will spend an additional €400 million increasing public sector pay, the value of reducing prescription charges, the value of the national childcare scheme or the value of initiatives such as free GP care and dental care. Those of us who believe in spending more money on public services to reduce the cost of living for working people and people who are not working can see how limited these analyses, both by the Department of Finance and the ESRI, are. We need a much more better and more intelligent way to assess whether budgets are progressive or regressive in the main.

Seán Ó Fearghaíl (Kildare South, Ceann Comhairle)
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Can we move on to Question No. 9?

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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Can the Taoiseach give a quick word on Brexit?

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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I cannot give the Deputy a quick word; I can give him a long word. It is too important a topic for a short reply.

Seán Ó Fearghaíl (Kildare South, Ceann Comhairle)
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Do Members want to move on?

Ruth Coppinger (Dublin West, Solidarity)
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What are the options?

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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The next question is on the environment.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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Brexit or the environment. Which is more important to the Deputies?

Ruth Coppinger (Dublin West, Solidarity)
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We are Brexited out.

Micheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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We should move on to the next question.

Mary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central, Sinn Fein)
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I would have liked an answer to my question as to whether bilateral engagements are taking place between Dublin and London in respect of the Good Friday Agreement.

Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
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There are bilateral engagements between Dublin and London but negotiations between the EU and the UK.