Dáil debates

Tuesday, 4 December 2018

4:25 pm

Photo of Micheál MartinMicheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

6. To ask the Taoiseach the role of his Department in Brexit preparedness. [47123/18]

Photo of Mary Lou McDonaldMary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central, Sinn Fein)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

7. To ask the Taoiseach if he will report on the role of his Department in preparing for Brexit. [48234/18]

Photo of Micheál MartinMicheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

8. To ask the Taoiseach if he and his officials are planning for the worst-case scenario in the event of the draft withdrawal treaty being rejected by the UK Parliament. [48377/18]

Photo of Michael MoynihanMichael Moynihan (Cork North West, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

9. To ask the Taoiseach if the Government is intensifying its preparations for a no-deal Brexit. [49443/18]

Photo of Richard Boyd BarrettRichard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

10. To ask the Taoiseach if he will report on the role of his Department in preparing for Brexit. [50807/18]

Photo of Leo VaradkarLeo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

I propose to take Questions Nos. 6 to 10, inclusive, together.

While the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, led by the Tánaiste, has overall responsibility for Brexit, it is clear that Brexit will have implications for each Department and agency. Staff across several divisions of my Department contribute to the work on Brexit. The international, EU and Northern Ireland division of the Department covers work on all international, EU, British-Irish and Northern Ireland affairs, including Brexit matters. The economic division of the Department advises me on economic policy aimed at promoting sustainable economic growth, with a particular focus on jobs and competitiveness, including the possible economic impacts of Brexit. To augment this work, the Department of the Taoiseach recently established a unit to work on Brexit preparedness and contingency planning and to assist a Secretaries General group that is overseeing ongoing work on national Brexit preparedness and contingency planning. The staff in this unit focus on cross-Government co-ordination, planning and programme management and work closely with their colleagues in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

I welcome the endorsement by the European Council of the agreement on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and the approval of the political declaration setting out the framework for the future relationship. The finalised agreement provides a basis by which we can avoid a hard Brexit, which would see the UK crash out of the EU with all the severe consequences that would imply. Rejection pushes us all towards a no-deal Brexit, from which nobody would benefit. Preparation and planning is ongoing across all Departments to deal with and plan for a range of Brexit scenarios, including a no-deal scenario. As the Tánaiste has previously stated, in a disorderly scenario the implementation of all planned arrangements would not be possible by 29 March 2019. Therefore, we are also focusing on possible temporary solutions which could be rapidly implemented until more long-term arrangements could be put in place. The whole-of-Government response is led by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and underpinned by a comprehensive set of Government structures, which ensure all Departments and their agencies are engaging in detailed preparedness and contingency planning, including through the development of sectoral action plans.

At several recent meetings, including one last week, the Government discussed Brexit preparedness and contingency planning and agreed a range of important actions for the necessary checks and controls for trade on an east-west basis. For example, the Government sanctioned the recruitment of additional staff for customs and sanitary and phytosanitary controls, as well as information and communications technology and infrastructure actions at our ports and airports. In a no-deal scenario, various actions could be employed, including accelerated recruitment and rapid redeployment of staff. Many issues will need to be dealt with on an EU-wide basis. The contingency action plan that was published by the European Commission recently covered eight particular areas. The specific impact of Brexit on Ireland and Irish businesses was flagged in the Commission's communications. Businesses and other affected sectors need to respond and prepare. Assistance is available from the Government to help them. The Getting Ireland Brexit Ready public information campaign was launched in September and several very successful outreach events have been held under this banner.

Photo of Micheál MartinMicheál Martin (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

I thank the Taoiseach for his reply. The ongoing chaos in Westminster is a reminder to us all that the default position under UK law is that Britain will leave the EU in 115 days' time. The withdrawal agreement may somehow be passed, there may be an extension of the Article 50 process or there may even be a new referendum, but the default position is that unless a majority can be constructed for an alternative, Brexit will happen on 29 March 2019. The cost of this to Ireland would be a minimum of €5 billion. According to an analysis by Copenhagen Economics, this could rise to €10 billion in the event of a collapse in sterling caused by the UK crashing out of the EU. In light of the scale of this issue, is it really a mark of successful preparations that basic information seminars are still being conducted less than four months before the most critical deadline? Would it be possible for the Taoiseach to put aside for a moment his spin about the number of people looking for information or about the potential funding? He needs to look at the bigger picture. According to data produced by the Government, most of the firms that are threatened by Brexit will not be ready for Brexit in March. They have few contingencies in place for disrupted supply lines, are badly exposed on sterling and have little of the required expertise available to them. If the majority of critical firms are not ready, or are exposed to threats without a means of tackling them, how can the Taoiseach say he is happy with the pace of preparations? If he disagrees with this interpretation, will he indicate what percentage of firms would need to have Brexit plans and contingencies in place and to have implemented them for him to be happy that Ireland is ready for Brexit? I am not asking him how many helpline calls we should log but what percentage of firms he believes should be ready on 29 March 2019.

Photo of Mary Lou McDonaldMary Lou McDonald (Dublin Central, Sinn Fein)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

In some respects, this issue of preparedness is a difficult one. I do not believe this State should concede that we will countenance for a second a scenario in which there is any hardening of the Border on our island. I do not think we should concede our ambitions in respect of North-South trade, the maintenance of the status quoand the protection of our agreements. We have agreed that all of these things are priorities for us. I do not think we should concede on the issue of east-west trading. I am very conscious that a debate is under way in Westminster. It is now a matter for the MPs who have been elected by their respective constituencies to have their debate, however chaotic and shambolic it may appear to our eyes. A degree of breathing room is necessary to allow that debate to happen. In my view, Brexit will happen. I have never believed we should be in the business of trying to wish it away. Of course there has to be an intense engagement with every sector, in business and beyond, on what might happen in a post-Brexit scenario. This is a long-term issue. The challenge for us is not simply to ensure in the immediacy of the fact that there are supply chains or that commerce takes place in the here and now. This is for keeps. It marks a profound shift in the political landscape. As the dust settles, there is a need for us to have a wide-ranging and deep conversation about what our island will look like in a post-Brexit world.

Photo of Richard Boyd BarrettRichard Boyd Barrett (Dún Laoghaire, People Before Profit Alliance)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

There is massive uncertainty about what will happen in Britain in the coming weeks. The hope that certain issues could be avoided on the basis of an agreement that resolves things to everyone's mutual satisfaction is looking a hell of a lot more shaky. That brings the possibility of a hard Brexit into view. What scenarios are being envisaged in the contingency planning mentioned by the Taoiseach? I reiterate my concern that in the event of a hard Brexit, we will come under pressure from the EU to erect a border between the North and the South of this country. While the Taoiseach has said he would not countenance that, we have heard slightly ambiguous statements from the Tánaiste, who has said it might be difficult to avoid. People need to know what the position is. I certainly believe that under no circumstances should we countenance that, regardless of who we come under pressure from. We should say we are not doing it and it will not happen. We should make clear that we will not participate in any attempt to impose a border between North and South for any reason and under any circumstances. I ask the Taoiseach to provide some clarity in that regard. Is this something that is envisaged under the Government's contingency scenario planning?

4:35 pm

Photo of Joan BurtonJoan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

We had the news today of the written judgment of the Advocate General of the European Court of Justice. Does the Taoiseach feel it is potentially very beneficial to Ireland and people in the UK who may want a soft Brexit or a rethink in the form of a second referendum? They are matters for the UK Government but they have an enormous influence on us. I want to know what is the Taoiseach's view. I have always thought that in the Brexit process, one of the things that should be explored is an extension of the Article 50 process. Until the Advocate General's viewpoint, which we expect will be endorsed by the European Court of Justice, was announced this morning, the feeling was it might be difficult to do because it would require all 27 countries to allow for it. It now seems to be potentially off the table. Does the Taoiseach welcome it? Does he feel it gives more flexibility to the Irish position?

In terms of preparing for Brexit, people all around the country, particularly farmers, are scared about the loose references to the World Trade Organization, WTO, rules in the event of a hard Brexit. As such, have we taken on experts in trade negotiations who are experienced on both the legal front and in the technicalities of trade negotiations? We have not negotiated a trade agreement since we joined the EU and neither has the UK. We need such expertise in the EU in the case of such an outcome. Is the Taoiseach preparing for it?

Photo of Leo VaradkarLeo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

On the various information seminars, we will keep doing them all the way through to Brexit and perhaps beyond. The suggestion I thought I heard from Deputy Martin was that the seminars should be all done and dusted by now. It is not the case at all. It has to be a continual process of informing business as the situation unfolds.

In terms of percentages, all firms that need to be prepared should be prepared by 29 March but we need to acknowledge that all firms are different. Some do not trade with the UK at all or do not trade much with it and some can shift operations. We have to acknowledge that different companies need to be prepared to different extents and some do not need to be prepared at all if they are not trading with the United Kingdom.

In terms of scenarios, we developed quite some time ago what we call the central case scenario. It turned out to be something very close to what we now have with the withdrawal agreement. The central case scenario says there will be a transition period of two years or more and when it is over there will be customs and regulatory checks east-west but not North-South. That is the central case scenario we have prepared for. We also prepared for a no deal scenario. While the central case scenario and no deal scenario sound like two scenarios, the response is a graduation of one from the other. That is how we have done the various scenario planning. We have not made any contingency or scenario planning for a hard Border between Northern Ireland and Ireland or any associated physical infrastructure.

In terms of trade agreements, as we will stay members of the European Union, trade will continue to be a sole EU competence and therefore will only be negotiated by the European Commission. We will not be negotiating our own trade agreements because we will be staying in the European Union. We have people who are experts in trade already. They are not negotiators because they will not be involved in any negotiations but they are experts in the rules and laws of trade. They are in the Department and they come in very useful when it comes to examining, for example, the impact of EU trade deals on Ireland, whether they are CETA, EU-Japan, Mercosur or EU-Mexico deals, because we need to have people who understand the WTO, how trade works and international trade law to make sure our interests are protected when we plug into discussions around what those trade deals might look like.

As was acknowledged, the report of the Advocate General is not an ECJ decision. It is the opinion of the Advocate General which the ECJ usually, but not always, concurs with. It says the Article 50 procedure could be withdrawn by the UK. It could unilaterally decide to stay. It would not have to renegotiate re-entry terms. It is up to the UK. It is a sovereign decision for it to make. It has decided not to make that decision. It has decided to respect the result of the referendum that occurred in the United Kingdom which was to leave. It is still the case that an extension of Article 50 would require a unanimous vote of member states. The difference is between the UK choosing to cancel Article 50, which it can do unilaterally, and seeking an extension which would require a vote of member states. The report suggests if the UK was to withdraw from Article 50, it would have to be done in good faith; it could not be done on a tactical basis. It could not invoke Article 50, withdraw it, revoke it again and then withdraw it on a tactical basis.

On the roles of other parties, we have often spoken about the role of Sinn Féin and the fact it has seven MPs who could vote in the House of Commons if they chose to do so. It is also the case that Fianna Fáil has a sister party in the Liberal Democrats. The Labour Party has a sister party in the British Labour Party. I encourage leaders to engage with their counterparts in the UK because there are a number of votes coming up. It is not simply just a vote on whether the House of Commons accepts the withdrawal agreement or not. There will be other votes. Some votes are being put down, particularly on the backstop. I would not like to see a vote in the House of Commons specifically repudiating the backstop. We know there cannot be a withdrawal agreement without the backstop. It is important that the sister parties, whether the Liberal Democrats or the British Labour Party, understand that.

Photo of Joan BurtonJoan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

What about the Tories? They are Fine Gael's counterparts.

Photo of Leo VaradkarLeo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

They will be voting for the deal or at least we expect the majority of them will.