Leo Varadkar (Dublin West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

On the various information seminars, we will keep doing them all the way through to Brexit and perhaps beyond. The suggestion I thought I heard from Deputy Martin was that the seminars should be all done and dusted by now. It is not the case at all. It has to be a continual process of informing business as the situation unfolds.

In terms of percentages, all firms that need to be prepared should be prepared by 29 March but we need to acknowledge that all firms are different. Some do not trade with the UK at all or do not trade much with it and some can shift operations. We have to acknowledge that different companies need to be prepared to different extents and some do not need to be prepared at all if they are not trading with the United Kingdom.

In terms of scenarios, we developed quite some time ago what we call the central case scenario. It turned out to be something very close to what we now have with the withdrawal agreement. The central case scenario says there will be a transition period of two years or more and when it is over there will be customs and regulatory checks east-west but not North-South. That is the central case scenario we have prepared for. We also prepared for a no deal scenario. While the central case scenario and no deal scenario sound like two scenarios, the response is a graduation of one from the other. That is how we have done the various scenario planning. We have not made any contingency or scenario planning for a hard Border between Northern Ireland and Ireland or any associated physical infrastructure.

In terms of trade agreements, as we will stay members of the European Union, trade will continue to be a sole EU competence and therefore will only be negotiated by the European Commission. We will not be negotiating our own trade agreements because we will be staying in the European Union. We have people who are experts in trade already. They are not negotiators because they will not be involved in any negotiations but they are experts in the rules and laws of trade. They are in the Department and they come in very useful when it comes to examining, for example, the impact of EU trade deals on Ireland, whether they are CETA, EU-Japan, Mercosur or EU-Mexico deals, because we need to have people who understand the WTO, how trade works and international trade law to make sure our interests are protected when we plug into discussions around what those trade deals might look like.

As was acknowledged, the report of the Advocate General is not an ECJ decision. It is the opinion of the Advocate General which the ECJ usually, but not always, concurs with. It says the Article 50 procedure could be withdrawn by the UK. It could unilaterally decide to stay. It would not have to renegotiate re-entry terms. It is up to the UK. It is a sovereign decision for it to make. It has decided not to make that decision. It has decided to respect the result of the referendum that occurred in the United Kingdom which was to leave. It is still the case that an extension of Article 50 would require a unanimous vote of member states. The difference is between the UK choosing to cancel Article 50, which it can do unilaterally, and seeking an extension which would require a vote of member states. The report suggests if the UK was to withdraw from Article 50, it would have to be done in good faith; it could not be done on a tactical basis. It could not invoke Article 50, withdraw it, revoke it again and then withdraw it on a tactical basis.

On the roles of other parties, we have often spoken about the role of Sinn Féin and the fact it has seven MPs who could vote in the House of Commons if they chose to do so. It is also the case that Fianna Fáil has a sister party in the Liberal Democrats. The Labour Party has a sister party in the British Labour Party. I encourage leaders to engage with their counterparts in the UK because there are a number of votes coming up. It is not simply just a vote on whether the House of Commons accepts the withdrawal agreement or not. There will be other votes. Some votes are being put down, particularly on the backstop. I would not like to see a vote in the House of Commons specifically repudiating the backstop. We know there cannot be a withdrawal agreement without the backstop. It is important that the sister parties, whether the Liberal Democrats or the British Labour Party, understand that.

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