Bernard Durkan (Kildare North, Fine Gael)
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51. To ask the Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine how markets for Irish products will be positively or negatively affected by a British exit from the European Union or by the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, his plans to address these issues to ensure the viability of the food producing sector and its unimpeded access to world markets and if he will make a statement on the matter. [14488/16]

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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I did not realise the Acting Chairman was in a position to question me.

Some 800,000 jobs are directly or indirectly dependent on trade in the Irish economy. Accordingly, free trade and free trade agreements are very important to us. Historically, the negotiation of access to new markets has been a big driver of economic development in Ireland.

It is commonly recognised that 90% of the growth in the world economy will be outside Europe in the years ahead. I believe we have to negotiate better access and become more committed to those markets where growth will occur in the future. Indeed, Food Wise 2025 highlights the need to expand current markets and develop new ones if we are to achieve the potential growth that the strategy foresees over the next ten years.

This is true also of the potential of the EU-US trade corridor. About one third of all world trade occurs on that corridor so it has significant potential importance for Europe and for Ireland. The US is one of our leading trading partners and we have a large and growing agrifood trade surplus with it with exports of €869 million last year compared to imports of €271 million.

Ireland has significant offensive interests in the TTIP negotiations. For example, we see worthwhile opportunities in the US for cheese, powdered milks and sports products and further opportunities for branded packaged butter if we can remove some regulatory barriers. Prepared consumer foods and fish could also benefit from trade liberalisation. Beef is a unique sector in that we have both offensive and defensive interests. In the long term, any significant increase in beef imports to the EU could have adverse effects on the Irish industry.

In respect of Brexit, it is clear that there are considerable potential negative implications for the Irish agrifood sector, as evidenced by the reports that have been conducted by the ESRI, Teagasc and others. The UK is by far our largest trading partner and there is a general consensus across all the analyses that a UK exit would have the greatest impact on the agrifood sector. However, much of these analyses have been based on a "worst case" scenario and it is very difficult to estimate the actual impact an exit will have on the agrifood sector prior to any post-exit negotiations that must take place between the EU and the UK should the UK decide to leave.

While it may be difficult to predict with certainty what the impact on the agrifood sector would be, impacts are foreseen in a number of areas such as tariff and trade arrangements, the EU budget, standards and customs controls. Potential differences in tariffs could restrict trade in both directions and affect traditional supply practices, particularly for raw materials.

As a net contributor to the EU budget, a UK exit will result in a loss of the UK contribution to that budget of between 5% and 10%, with consequential implications for CAP spending in the years ahead.

Martin Heydon (Kildare South, Fine Gael)
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I congratulate the Minister and Minister of State on their new roles.

If Brexit were to happen, a weakening of sterling would be a considerable concern for us in the short term. There are broader issues, which the Minister has outlined. There would be challenges to Ireland as the food nation and food island, with our counterparts in Northern Ireland, and I ask the Minister to use his good offices to address those challenges. There are approximately 900,000 citizens with a vote in the UK who have Irish connections and while it is a choice for them, as the Minister, Deputy Charlie Flanagan, has outlined, we should use our good offices here to portray to them that it would have a negative impact on our country. We should also examine any potential positives of a Brexit and how they would feed through.

In terms of TTIP, low commodity prices, which are a very significant concern for the primary producer at present, are an issue and access to the markets is absolutely crucial. As part of TTIP we should make sure we do not trade beef off against other commodities but anything that opens up new markets is a positive.

Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael)
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Much of the public commentary on these trade agreements is slightly worrying because it does not seem to acknowledge that if we do not trade we will have ten year old bullocks roaming the highways and byways of west Cork and other parts of the country. We need to export 90% of what we produce on the island. We can feed 50 million people with the exports we produce here to a high quality and standard. Trade is our lifeblood but it is trade on our terms in a way that protects our primary producers. The more markets we have, the better prices we can extract. I acknowledge that a Brexit would be particularly devastating for the agrifood sector. In consultations with the stakeholders I have met since my appointment I have emphasised that they have a skin in the game in this debate and in whatever way they consider appropriate they should reach out to people they can influence, whether it is the 140,000 people living here, the very significant Irish expat population in the UK or many of the major agrifood players who have operations in the UK. They should try to influence that debate in whatever way they can.

I acknowledge the point made by Deputy Heydon on TTIP. We have both offensive and defensive interest in this regard and we need to make sure that any negotiation is concluded in terms that are beneficial to us. We never get everything we want in negotiations but we should not compromise on the standards of food production or on the safety of the food we produce in any way. They are cornerstones of negotiations that will not be compromised.