Michael Creed (Cork North West, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

I did not realise the Acting Chairman was in a position to question me.

Some 800,000 jobs are directly or indirectly dependent on trade in the Irish economy. Accordingly, free trade and free trade agreements are very important to us. Historically, the negotiation of access to new markets has been a big driver of economic development in Ireland.

It is commonly recognised that 90% of the growth in the world economy will be outside Europe in the years ahead. I believe we have to negotiate better access and become more committed to those markets where growth will occur in the future. Indeed, Food Wise 2025 highlights the need to expand current markets and develop new ones if we are to achieve the potential growth that the strategy foresees over the next ten years.

This is true also of the potential of the EU-US trade corridor. About one third of all world trade occurs on that corridor so it has significant potential importance for Europe and for Ireland. The US is one of our leading trading partners and we have a large and growing agrifood trade surplus with it with exports of €869 million last year compared to imports of €271 million.

Ireland has significant offensive interests in the TTIP negotiations. For example, we see worthwhile opportunities in the US for cheese, powdered milks and sports products and further opportunities for branded packaged butter if we can remove some regulatory barriers. Prepared consumer foods and fish could also benefit from trade liberalisation. Beef is a unique sector in that we have both offensive and defensive interests. In the long term, any significant increase in beef imports to the EU could have adverse effects on the Irish industry.

In respect of Brexit, it is clear that there are considerable potential negative implications for the Irish agrifood sector, as evidenced by the reports that have been conducted by the ESRI, Teagasc and others. The UK is by far our largest trading partner and there is a general consensus across all the analyses that a UK exit would have the greatest impact on the agrifood sector. However, much of these analyses have been based on a "worst case" scenario and it is very difficult to estimate the actual impact an exit will have on the agrifood sector prior to any post-exit negotiations that must take place between the EU and the UK should the UK decide to leave.

While it may be difficult to predict with certainty what the impact on the agrifood sector would be, impacts are foreseen in a number of areas such as tariff and trade arrangements, the EU budget, standards and customs controls. Potential differences in tariffs could restrict trade in both directions and affect traditional supply practices, particularly for raw materials.

As a net contributor to the EU budget, a UK exit will result in a loss of the UK contribution to that budget of between 5% and 10%, with consequential implications for CAP spending in the years ahead.

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