Clare Daly (Dublin North, United Left)
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5. To ask the Minister for Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation if he is satisfied with the credibility of the source studies on which the growth in gross domestic product, the projections for growth in jobs and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership are based; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [28706/15]

Clare Daly (Dublin North, United Left)
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This question relates to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP. It is an absolute disgrace that we are heading into the recess without having a comprehensive discussion in the Parliament about its widescale implications. The Minister has made repeated claims that it will have a wonderful impact on job creation and GDP growth rates. In 2013 he told us it would lead to the creation of 2 million jobs and put an extra €500 in the pockets of every family of four. Earlier this year he said it would lead to the creation of 400,000 jobs. Is he satisfied with the credibility of the reports on which he is relying in making these outlandish statements?

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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We did have a comprehensive discussion in the Oireachtas. Three committees met together for an extensive discussion, with questions and answers, when there was a much more meaningful exchange than we could have had here. Members were able to raise concerns and the meeting ran for several hours. It was very fruitful and all shades of opinion were represented. The issues have also been discussed in numerous other fora, some of which were sponsored by my Department.

On the valuation, the European Commission’s assessment of the likely benefits of the EU and US trade negotiations is based on analysis carried out by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, CEPR, a leading independent pan-European economic research organisation. The study commissioned by my Department of the potential impact on Ireland was prepared by Copenhagen Economics, independent external experts in this field. It is based on the best available techniques of economic modelling and uses the same model and methodology as for the CEPR study to facilitate direct comparison. It shows, based on reasonable assumptions, that a potential gain of €2.4 billion in national income, over €1,200 per family, is possible from an ambitious agreement.

The studies use the computable general equilibrium model, the purpose of which is to simulate the impact of an EU and US trade agreement based on assumptions about the outcome of the negotiations. The model can give important insights into the potential gains from negotiations and the potential opportunities or challenges for specific sectors. This, in turn, helps policymakers to frame policies to maximise the opportunities and mitigate the challenges. Bearing in mind the limitations of all economic modelling, the studies provide important insights and add to our understanding of the potential of the EU and US trade negotiations. For Ireland, the studies show significant opportunities in important sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, food, especially dairy, software and public procurement. These represent an important and growing part of the exporting economy.

Clare Daly (Dublin North, United Left)
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All of the studies cited by the Minister are based on computable general equilibrium modelling techniques and the general equilibrium theory that underpins them. They have been widely discredited by sociologists and most economists, with the exception of the neoclassical economists who are wedded to the neoliberal agenda. The methods used by these groups have been defined by some as fictional expectations of GDP and jobs growth will come from the TTIP. I am not the only one who is saying this. Even not so radical organisations such as The Economist stated, "If the modeller believes that trade raises productivity and growth, for example, then the model's result will mechanically confirm this". It is very much like what is called in computer terms "garbage in, garbage out" and the predictions around austerity. We were told it would deliver magnificent growth rates in Europe when, in reality, it has delivered the opposite. The idea of deregulating Europe, privatisation, lowering the living standards of workers and so on was very much supported. Given that the European Commission has stated ballpark figures are available, the Minister might want to revise his attitude to the studies.

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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The truth is that economies need growth strategies. In the case of Ireland, our strategy has been very much based on export-led recovery. In our dealings with the United States 70%, or 125,000 people, are employed by US companies in Ireland. In the case of Irish companies, some €2 billion worth of trade is done with US companies. Both categories have grown rapidly. Ireland has used its trade links in the past few years to beat the pressures exerted by declining domestic demand and on the public finances by the crisis in banking. We have done so successfully and the growth strategy places Ireland at the top of the league in growth in employment, GDP and exports. We are managing it successfully. The reduction in trade barriers in the United States is good for Irish people because we have very strong trade links and can build on reduced tariffs and non-trade barriers and the better co-ordination of regulations. That is where we can gain and the model seeks to examine the impact of a reduction in tariffs and non-trade barriers. It naturally implies gains for Ireland which trades heavily in these markets.

Clare Daly (Dublin North, United Left)
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The problem is that the Minister's predictions which he so confidently makes are nonsense in the context of the models used. I do not say this in a derogatory way but because the same rationale was used, for example, in making predictions about other trade agreements which did not materialise.

Greatness was predicted in terms of the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, for example, which did not materialise based on this modelling. Other predictions were revised downwards because they did not live up to the so-called expectations.

As Lorenzo Fioramonti claims in his recent book, How Numbers Rule the World, numbers are used and abused to entrench the power of markets and undermine public debate. That is what we have seen utilised in this so-called debate on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP. I asked that it would be discussed in this Chamber because three committees would not give it an adequate airing, given its impact here. Is it not just part and parcel of the neoliberal agenda to, as the Minister said, deregulate and liberalise everything, the consequences of which are environmental devastation, the destruction of workers' rights and the welfare state while those at the top with the money can scoop up the profits and line their own pockets?

Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael)
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The truth is that any free trade agreement offers opportunities for sectors to grow. In the case of Ireland and the United States, there is ample and clear evidence of that. For example, in terms of our growth in software and business services, 60% of that growth has been in the US market. That is a very strong market for us and if there can be better access to that market, we can gain from it. However, to take advantage of any trade agreement we have to put in place the necessary policies. That is why it is important that we do an evaluation of this nature, which models where the potential opportunities lie. We can now set about examining how we can exploit the opportunities in food, medical devices, software and public procurement that will arise, and prepare for areas where there are potential threats. That is the advantage of these models, and Ireland has proven over many years that we are adept at winning in international markets. We are a small, open trading economy. We depend on trade agreements. If we look at the evidence of the Korea Free Trade Agreement where trade between Europe and Korea has trebled as a result of the opening up of that agreement, we can see the benefits that are to be realised.