Richard Bruton (Dublin North Central, Fine Gael) | Oireachtas source

We did have a comprehensive discussion in the Oireachtas. Three committees met together for an extensive discussion, with questions and answers, when there was a much more meaningful exchange than we could have had here. Members were able to raise concerns and the meeting ran for several hours. It was very fruitful and all shades of opinion were represented. The issues have also been discussed in numerous other fora, some of which were sponsored by my Department.

On the valuation, the European Commission’s assessment of the likely benefits of the EU and US trade negotiations is based on analysis carried out by the Centre for Economic Policy Research, CEPR, a leading independent pan-European economic research organisation. The study commissioned by my Department of the potential impact on Ireland was prepared by Copenhagen Economics, independent external experts in this field. It is based on the best available techniques of economic modelling and uses the same model and methodology as for the CEPR study to facilitate direct comparison. It shows, based on reasonable assumptions, that a potential gain of €2.4 billion in national income, over €1,200 per family, is possible from an ambitious agreement.

The studies use the computable general equilibrium model, the purpose of which is to simulate the impact of an EU and US trade agreement based on assumptions about the outcome of the negotiations. The model can give important insights into the potential gains from negotiations and the potential opportunities or challenges for specific sectors. This, in turn, helps policymakers to frame policies to maximise the opportunities and mitigate the challenges. Bearing in mind the limitations of all economic modelling, the studies provide important insights and add to our understanding of the potential of the EU and US trade negotiations. For Ireland, the studies show significant opportunities in important sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, food, especially dairy, software and public procurement. These represent an important and growing part of the exporting economy.

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