Barry Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Question 36: To ask the Minister for Social Protection if, in view of her recent press briefings regarding projected spending for 2011, she is alleging that false assumptions were made; and if she will detail the nature and extent of same. [10526/11]

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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The Revised Estimates volume, published by the previous Government in February, provides for total expenditure on social welfare schemes and services of €20.615 billion in 2011. This sum incorporates the effect of a range of savings measures announced in budget 2011.

The estimate for jobseekers' payments contained in the Revised Estimates volume was based on a weekly average live register of 405,000 in 2011. If current trends continue, the live register will outturn at an average higher than provided for in the Estimate. If this turns out to be the case, additional expenditure over and above that provided will be incurred. The weekly average live register in the year to date has been 441,482. The jobs initiative announced today will play an important role in getting people back to work or into education, training and internship and off the live register, so it is too early to quantify any overspend.

The social welfare package in budget 2011 was designed to achieve total savings of €873 million. The measures included reductions in weekly rates of payment for all working age recipients and in monthly child benefit. Savings were also to be achieved through the continuation of spending restrictions under the treatment benefits scheme, administrative savings and a range of activation measures. Budget 2011 also provided for €30 million in savings through achieving efficiencies in the electricity and telecoms elements of the household benefits package. My officials are currently in discussions with the relevant providers with a view to achieving these savings. Savings of €60 million in the rent supplement scheme were also included in the budget figures. However, no specific measures were decided upon to achieve €50 million, or in that region, of this saving.

In addition, it was announced that approximately €49 million would be saved through various other measures. No measures were publicly announced. However, this €49 million was allocated across a range of schemes, with specific amounts deducted on a scheme by scheme basis, in both the Estimates published on budget day and the subsequent Revised Estimates volume, both of which were approved by the previous Government. It is my understanding from my officials that the then Minister intended to bring forward a range of measures to achieve these savings in the context of an early social welfare Bill. However, events overtook this.

My colleagues and I are currently considering the issues and options arising in the context of the financial targets set in budget 2011.

Barry Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Further to her answer, will the Minister outline whether in the context of the overall spend of her Department throughout the year on these demand-led initiatives the figures provided are those of her officials? Are they based on the normal assumptions such as the projected growth rates and unemployment predictions etc. for demand led schemes? Will the Minister confirm that provision has been made this year, as it is any other year, for a supplementary allowance to be made available in the event that when the figures crystalise there is an underspend?

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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The Estimates for budget 2011 were prepared by the previous Minister and Government.

Barry Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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It was officials.

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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As I recall, the former Minister was Deputy Ó Cuív and the Government was made up of Fianna Fáil and the Green Party. The critical issue was the provision in the Estimates for an expectation of 405,000 people on average to be on the register during 2011. As I stated, for the year to date the weekly average live register has been 441,000.

Later today, my colleague, the Minister for Finance, will announce a series of jobs initiatives and measures which we hope will reduce the number of people on the live register. However, those are the figures and the previous Government factored in an assumption of 405,000 which turned out to be significantly different to the experience to date in 2011.

Barry Cowen (Laois-Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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I am somewhat puzzled. The officials available to the previous Minister were the same as those available to the current Minister. The figures are those of the Minister's officials. The supplementary provision is in place as always. If the provision is to be out by 1% in the context of a €20 billion budget, then why, on the basis of those two points, this extraordinary, cynical, politically motivated comment that the figures are massaged? When the Minister makes such commentary, as per the recent Sunday Business Post article on 24 April, she alleges that a false projection has been portrayed by the Minister's officials.

Joan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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The reality is that when I came into the Department, the Department's estimates, which were the estimates of the previous Minister in the Department and the Minister for Finance in the previous Government, projected an unemployment figure of 405,000 in 2011. The actual figure has turned out to be 441,000 on average in the year to date. This is the major reason for the difference. The second reason is that savings were targeted across a series of headings amounting to €49 million and were provided for in the departmental Estimates but not announced. In addition, savings were targeted which were the subject of announcements in respect of savings in the rent supplement scheme. How €50 million of the €60 million savings would be found was not identified.

I understand the previous Minister intended to bring forward detailed proposals of these estimates. The previous Minister signed off all these estimates and measures as did the previous Government. The previous Minister intended to bring forward these measures but events, in the shape of the general election and a change of Government, overtook what the Minister, presumably, intended to do.