Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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Question 7: To ask the Minister for the Environment, Heritage and Local Government the target which Ireland has set in the national climate change strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2012; the reduction achieved to date in 2005; the estimated annual cost to Ireland if greenhouse gas emissions remain at their current level; the target for reduction in greenhouse gases for each year between now and 2012; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [36762/05]

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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The national climate change strategy sets out Ireland's approach to meeting its target for the purpose of the Kyoto Protocol, which is to limit the growth in greenhouse gas emissions to 13% above 1990 levels in the 2008 to 2012 commitment period. It was projected that, in the absence of any measures to address the problem, Ireland's emissions in that period could be some 37% above 1990 levels. The target relates to the average for the Kyoto Protocol commitment period 2008 to 2012 and is not defined on an annual basis.

In 2003, the latest year for which figures are available, Ireland's emissions were approximately 25% above the 1990 level. This figure is down from 31% in 2001 and 29% in 2002. This progress is satisfactory but rapid growth in the economy is nonetheless placing an upward pressure on our greenhouse gas emissions and requires us to intensify efforts to bring about the required reductions.

The latest available projections of greenhouse gas emissions for the 2008 to 2012 commitment period suggest that, in the absence of any additional measures, the estimated gap, that is, the distance to the target will be approximately 8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. The Government is acting to close this gap in three ways. A proportion of the required reduction will be allocated to Irish participants in the EU emissions trading scheme. Following a review of the national climate change strategy, the Government will bring forward further measures to secure reductions across the rest of the economy. The Government will avail of the mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol which allows it to meet its obligations by purchasing credits for carbon reductions elsewhere in the world.

The Government has also signalled its intention to purchase up to 3.7 million allowances for each year of the Kyoto Protocol commitment period. On the basis of an assessed average price of €15 per carbon allowance during the period 2008 to 2012, the total annual cost to the Exchequer would be €55.5 million. The ultimate cost to the Exchequer will depend on the final purchasing requirement and the price of carbon when the credits are purchased. As the figures are projections covering the period from 2008 to 2012, it is impossible to state exactly what the figures will be then.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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With regard to the projected cost, is the cost of €55.5 million per year the worst case scenario? The Minister stated that we must close a gap of 8 million tonnes of carbon to meet our Kyoto Protocol target in six years' time. Hence, will we achieve an annual reduction in the order of 1.5 million tonnes of carbon between now and 2012? Will the Minister indicate to the House how that will be achieved?

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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As for the figure of €55.5 million, it was calculated on the basis of €15 per unit for the period from 2008 to 2012.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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Is that the worst case scenario?

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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While I know that the Deputy is comfortable with worst case scenarios, that is——

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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I have simply asked a question.

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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It is on the basis of a figure of €15 per carbon unit in the period specified. As I stated in the final sentence of my reply, the ultimate cost to the Exchequer will depend on the final purchasing requirement and the price of carbon credits during the time when they are calculated.

As for the Deputy's query whether it would be annualised, the answer is "No". As the Deputy is aware, the commitment period extends from 2008 to 2012.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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While I am aware that this is a commitment period, its final year is now only six years' away. We have a gap of 8 million tonnes of carbon to close. We have not done very well in the past five years since the climate change strategy was published. The Minister has avoided answering the question on the worst case scenario for the obvious reason that he does not want to admit what I have alleged, just as he did not want to admit it when interviewed on radio.

Is it the case that Ireland will not meet the target of 13% by 2012? Will the Government's way out be to use taxpayers' money to allow the country to continue to pollute? Is this not the picture the Minister is painting?

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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That is the most extraordinary distortion of the reality. As Deputy Gilmore well knows, under the Kyoto Protocol there are many different ways in which a state party to the protocol can reach its targets.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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Including buying its way out of it.

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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Including buying, that is correct.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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With taxpayers' money. How much taxpayers' money will be spent?

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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When the Government buys anything, it does so using taxpayers' money. If the Deputy had the forbearance to let me finish my sentence, I would inform him that there is a logic to the process, as he knows. One can either go the most economically costly way or, alternatively, buy green credits, from a developing country for example. This process in envisaged and central to the protocol. The Deputy knows this as well as I do and therefore there is no point in his acting as if he were astonished.

Deputy Gilmore also asked me about the worst case scenario — the worst case scenario is the worst case scenario. I have outlined to the Deputy the basis on which the calculations are made.

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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How will the Minister be able to look his UK counterparts in the eye and lecture them about nuclear energy when this country, under his stewardship, is failing to meet its commitments on carbon reduction under the Kyoto Protocol?

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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The repetition that this country is failing to meet its targets is patent nonsense given that we are talking about a period from 2008. Time and again, I have outlined to the Deputy, who does not like to hear facts, the reductions from 31% in 2001 and 29% in 2002 to 25% in 2003, the last year for which figures are available. I also said very frankly to him that, as economic——

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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They are increases. We are 25% over the target level and the rest of Europe is 7% under.

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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The Deputy is now showing that he has a very flawed grasp of basic numeric accuracy. With all due respect to him——

Eamon Gilmore (Dún Laoghaire, Labour)
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We have one of the worst records in Europe in regard to carbon emissions.

Dick Roche (Wicklow, Fianna Fail)
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——25% is not higher than 29% or 31%.