John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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Question 6: To ask the Tánaiste and Minister for Health and Children the action her Department is taking in response to warnings from the World Health Organisation of the danger of a flu pandemic; if there are plans to increase the supply of anti-viral drugs here, which are now only adequate for approximately 45,000 persons; if a meeting has been called of the expert group tasked with updating Ireland's emergency plan and stockpiling anti-viral drugs; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [9541/05]

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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The influenza pandemic expert group is reviewing and updating Ireland's 2002 influenza pandemic preparedness plan. Once finalised, the updated plan will be published. The 2002 plan was based on the World Health Organisation, or WHO, blueprint for an influenza pandemic plan, published in 1999. It addresses a range of issues, including prevention strategies, scientific and medical issues, and communications. The WHO plan is currently being updated to incorporate new scientific data and experience obtained during recent outbreaks. Our pandemic plan will be modified in line with those recommendations once they are agreed and published by the World Health Organisation.

Vaccination is the principal measure for preventing influenza and reducing the impact of epidemics. It will be the primary public health intervention in the event of an influenza pandemic. However, the production of a vaccine tailored to a pandemic influenza strain could take six to nine months. Developments are under way at international level seeking to expedite that process.

Pending the availability of virus-specific vaccines, anti-viral drugs will be the only influenza-specific medical intervention available for use in the event of a pandemic. Anti-virals can be used for prevention and treatment. The Government has decided that anti-viral drugs should be stockpiled. The expert group reviewed recommendations for the use of anti-virals in line with best international practice at its meeting on 24 February 2005. Following consideration of the expert group's advice, I have directed that 1 million treatment packs of Tamiflu should be stockpiled. That quantity is sufficient to treat 25% of the population and is in line with best international practice. The Health Service Executive has been so advised, and procurement arrangements have been put in train. I am confident that 600,000 packs will have been delivered by the end of this year — sufficient to treat 15% of the population. The remaining 400,000 packs will be delivered in 2006.

A national anti-viral stockpile would be used to treat priority groups. Prioritisation is essential if morbidity and mortality are to be reduced and essential services are to be maintained, thereby minimising as far as possible the disruption to society that might result from a pandemic. The priority groups include, for example, individuals hospitalised with influenza, people who may be more vulnerable to the virus, and key workers in essential services.

It should be noted, however, that pandemic planning is a dynamic process, and the definition of risk is likely to change over time. That means the recommendations for use of anti-virals must be kept under review and expert opinion always sought. In particular, the expert group will need to review the epidemiological data before final recommendations are decided in the setting of an imminent pandemic. The decision-making process will be guided at all times by relevant expert advice from the European Commission and the World Health Organisation.

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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The Tánaiste stated that the plan would be published once finalised. When does she expect that the document will be finalised, and what has been the delay? We have been told that the consultants refused to meet. Does that continue to hinder the progress of the pandemic expert group? Who are the priority groups? The Tánaiste mentioned those most vulnerable, but are we also talking about emergency staff, the gardaí and so on? Would it include Members and Ministers? How far does it go in the context of getting those extra doses of Tamiflu? Will the ordinary person have to go out and buy it? For what price is it retailing? Does the Tánaiste agree that we simply could not cope with a pandemic, given the major crisis in our accident and emergency units which look like a war zone? Does she agree with the assessment of the pandemic expert group that up to 26,000 people would need treatment and that 11,000 people in the Republic could die? Will she explain to the House the disparity between the figure that 11,000 people in the Republic could die and the statement yesterday by Dr. Lorraine Doherty, senior medical officer in the Northern Ireland health department, that 36,000 people could die in Northern Ireland? Does she agree with me that there is much confusion surrounding the figures we have been given? Does she agree also that co-operation between North and South is required on this issue? What measures has the Tánaiste taken to co-operate with our colleagues in Northern Ireland? If Ireland does not cope with this pandemic, will she consider that a resigning matter?

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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It is one thing to resign over events that have happened but the Deputy may be Minister for Health and Children by the time we have such a pandemic. I hope we will not have one soon.

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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I would not want the job.

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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I am surprised to hear that. At least the Deputy is being honest.

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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I am being honest with the Tánaiste.

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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I will remember that. Is it a case of all advice and no bottle?

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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I have got the bottle.

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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I will have to ask the other Deputies the same question. Perhaps I will have to stay in the post forever.

Dan Neville (Limerick West, Fine Gael)
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I would love the chance.

Liz McManus (Wicklow, Labour)
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Just give me the opportunity.

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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On the expert group, it was delayed because of the dispute but that dispute is now settled. It is imminent. I have had a number of discussions with the chairman of the group and some of the members and it is imminent. It is the type of expertise that is almost constant in that it is difficult to say that this is the final report because events are changing rapidly, and there is a good deal of co-ordination and co-operation at international level, both at European Union and World Health Organisation level. A very good seminar on this matter was held recently in the O'Reilly Hall in University College Dublin and attended by many international speakers.

The Deputy said our accident and emergency units are like a war zone. I was in Sarajevo last Saturday and Sunday.

Liam Twomey (Wexford, Fine Gael)
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For the peace and quiet.

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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The Deputy should go there because he would see——

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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Is the Tánaiste comparing this country to a war zone?

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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——what a war zone is really like, unfortunately. On the priority groups, I will take advice from the experts on the make-up of those groups. I doubt if we would include politicians in a priority group. I would certainly not want to show any preference to myself or my ministerial colleagues but I am sure best international practice in this area will be followed. The groups include emergency workers and the more vulnerable groups in our society. This is something that has to be done purely on the basis of expertise and advice and not on any other basis. There is much debate about this issue internationally. I hope we do not have a pandemic soon.

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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What about the huge difference between the figures for Northern Ireland and those given for here?

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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I cannot account for that difference. The Deputy made a good suggestion about having an all-Ireland approach. That is a good idea.

John Gormley (Dublin South East, Green Party)
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We have to do that.

Mary Harney (Dublin Mid West, Progressive Democrats)
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I cannot account for the difference in the figures. The figures did not come from politicians. They came from the experts and I have to accept what the experts say in this area. To be honest, with an issue as serious as this one it is probably difficult to get exact figures. All we can do is take best advice and approximate because one never knows, as with SARS and other unknown viruses, what might be the impact.