Michael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)

I am sure the Minister will agree that the pattern in recent times from the Department of Finance has been to be overly optimistic in its growth projections. Unfortunately, that is what we have seen. We all hope the projections will not transpire in 2012 and that growth surpasses what it has predicted, but it has predicted a level of growth for the Irish economy in excess of three times what the European Commission is forecasting for Europe generally. We are trying to achieve an export-led recovery but since many of our main trading partners in the European Union are experiencing sluggish growth, to say the least, this poses a real threat to the prospects of an export-led recovery. The key question is how sacrosanct is getting to a figure of 8.6% on the button next year. If growth does not materialise - we hope it does - will there be a requirement for adjustments mid-year to ensure we come in on target?

See this speech in context