Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

I do not agree with the Deputy that the Department of Finance has erred on the side of optimism in recent years. It has been close enough to the average in its forecasts. Sometimes it has been slightly above and sometimes below. It predicted a growth rate of 0.8% in 2011 and it has now marked up this rate to 1%. This makes it easier at year's end because if one considers the correction made in the CSO figures of 1.9% in the first quarter and 1.3% in the second quarter, one would need it to come back significantly to get it down to 1% for the full year.

The anecdotal evidence suggests export-led growth is continuing through the third quarter. As I have stated already, this is rather inexact and we must work on the best information available to us. We should be cognisant as well that other forecasters are at work, some of whom are more pessimistic and others who are more optimistic. Those in the ESRI have always tended to be more optimistic than the Department of Finance and, historically, they have proven to be correct. They are more optimistic on this occasion. Let us hope they are right.

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