Michael Noonan (Limerick City, Fine Gael)

Forecasting is always an inexact science. What we have to do is to use the best information available to come to a judgment on what growth rates may be in the following year. It is generally recognised in the European Union that Ireland has now returned to significant growth rates which are at present in advance of those of most of our colleague countries in the EU. The Deputy is probably aware that the CSO revisited the growth figures for the first quarter of this year and it now agrees that growth in the first quarter was 1.9%, which is significant. Last April we were looking at growth, on the basis of reasonable forecasts, of 2.5% for next year. In preparing the budget we have marked that down by 0.9%, which is a significant amount. Writers who tabulate the various forecasts have pitched a mid-range figure of 1.5%, and we are in line with that. I hope we will actually beat these figures, but I can assure the Deputy these are the forecasts produced by the forecasting section of the Department of Finance, with no political input, and we think they are prudent and the risks are balanced. One could cite risks on the down-side, but one could also cite risks on the up-side, so I think they are balanced.

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