Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 9 May 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Foreign Affairs and Trade, and Defence

Hybrid Threats and Threats to the National Infrastructure: Institute of International and European Affairs

Dr. Barry Colfer:

There is a lot there. I will do my best to get through as many of those interesting and important points as possible and will hand a couple over to Mr. FitzGerald. On our messaging in the paper and in our work and the direct identification of Russia as a threat, Russia caused this war so that is an easy one. It invaded its neighbour, causing this atrocious war. The Kremlin, as the Cathaoirleach quoted from our paper, has said critical infrastructure is fair game. It has also said countries providing armaments to support Ukrainian forces are engaged in a confrontation. This is shaking up German domestic politics, for example, as the Cathaoirleach knows. This is the context in which we call Russia out as the aggressor. I think that is fairly uncontroversial.

The Cathaoirleach mentioned Russians in Ireland and whether this is part of our vulnerability. I would say it is not specifically. We all know Russians in Ireland and they are citizens, taxpayers and parents as much as anybody. I would not identify them as a cohort we reflect on in our paper but if there are Russians in Ireland who are part of the attempt by the Russian Federation to undermine the State, that needs to be carefully monitored and called out. I will assiduously avoid comment on the fact the Russian ambassador is still here other than to say I believe fundamentally and to my fingertips in the power of diplomacy and the importance of maintaining political and diplomatic interactions as far as possible, even deep into a conflict.

Regarding the ambivalence I expressed, the Cathaoirleach’s point is well made and well taken. There is much happening in Ireland now - and this has evolved even in the past half-year - in terms of a robust, informed, interesting debate on Ireland’s security context and defence posture. This includes the entities the Cathaoirleach named, the Department of the Taoiseach, the Garda, Defence Forces, Department of Defence, Department of energy and various forms of public consultation. My ambivalence is more about not picking a favourite. It is important that somebody does it and that there is good co-ordination between entities. Co-ordination could always be better. I was trying to hint at that. It was potentially the most indiscreet part of my remarks. It is not peculiar to the security and defence environment we have been talking about but, as a relatively small, hyperconnected place, there are opportunities for replication and miscommunications to happen. It would be really good if they were prevented from happening through co-ordination between actors and entities. If that takes a statutory body, as Deputy Cronin said, that is the bit I am ambivalent about. I do not mind who does it provided there is good hard co-ordination, given how serious the matters we have discussed are.

On the collaboration between public and private bodies and actors, Mr. FitzGerald may come in on this, but it can be done. It is part of Ireland’s industrial policy. We have a high density of good quality employment, US foreign direct investment and other forms of direct investment. Given the amount of intellect, knowledge and expertise in the country by dint of these actors, who members know and who are household names, there could be easy wins co-ordinating between really smart people working in the public sector and in the private sector.

I will step back to something Deputy Stanton said because it just occurred to me. It concerns the dangers of hacking into our phones and of affordable, easy-to-use technology that can be bought off the shelf in the dark parts of the Internet and used to exploit people, hack and cause damage. We should remember, given we play host to so much data and high-tech industry, that it is also an instrument for good, even in this conflict, from keeping in touch with people to President Zelenskyy's famous remarks to the public, including in the hours after the initial invasion. If members have not seen these recordings, I encourage them to do so. He interacts with various social networks and he let the Ukrainians know he was there. Talking about disinformation, it was being circulated by the Kremlin that he fled and the people were left leaderless. He was able to stand in the centre of Kyiv – it is very moving – and with the phone in his hand say, “I’m here”. While there are threats, there are great opportunities. It is fairly morbid, but there is widely documented evidence of high density of mobile telephony being used to identify where troops are massed. It is a multifaceted thing and not just about hacking, but other things as well.

On the international stage and the EU’s strategic compass, Ireland finds itself, as we all know and members perhaps know better than anybody, in a radically changed international context. It is not just because of the UK’s withdrawal, but we are still coming to terms with the fact Ireland is in the EU and the UK is not. It raises major questions for defence co-operation on these islands. It was reported very effectively yesterday in a national broadsheet that once the discussion regarding the war in Ukraine and the EU strategic compass is done, we have to get back to that one about how Ireland and the UK need to co-operate effectively in this new reality.

On NATO and the EU security jigsaw, I will pass that on to Mr. FitzGerald. He is probably better placed to comment.