Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 March 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Discussion

Mr. Vasileios Madouros:

I can start with some of the inflation issues and my colleague might pick up some of the other questions. Inflation remains too high. The societal costs for everyone of high and unpredictable inflation are really high. It is for this reason that monetary policy in Europe has been tightened by the European Central Bank's, ECB, governing council. It has raised interest rates to make sure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target. Our forecast, which we outlined earlier, is that headline inflation is projected to fall to around 5% this year and then go to around 2.2% by 2025. Effectively, it is gradually returning down. If we look at underlying inflationary dynamics they are still there. Underlying inflation is likely to be more persistent but that is precisely why monetary policy is responding. The worst possible outcome would be if policy action were not taken and inflation were to be ingrained into the overall economy. In that case, to bring it back down to 2% or to its more normal levels would require much more painful policy action. That is the lesson that we collectively learned in the 1980s.