Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 March 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Discussion

Dr. Robert Kelly:

I can take some of the questions on corporation tax. This is consistent with what we are trying to advise. What we are seeing or what we describe as windfall tax essentially depends on the tax planning for a small number of firms. It is not necessarily what one would see as the corporation tax level linked to the growth rate we are seeing in the Irish economy. The first issue is measurement so it is almost impossible to answer the Deputy's first question as to when exactly it might stop. That depends on global value change, for example, and the business models of some multinational operators. It is a complex system which could change for a number of reasons. We perform measurements by looking at the level of growth in the economy using GNI* and we predict what should be the corporation tax level linked to that level of growth. The gap between that and what we realise, we put under it as a windfall tax. While having this windfall tax is a huge gain, it is very important what we do with it next. The real danger here is that it potentially enters into permanent current expenditure. If, as the Deputy has highlighted and we are in agreement on, it was to stop for some reason, we have a problem because current expenditure remains elevated and we would have to try to meet it. However, if for the likes of the reserve fund, it was used to build up and deal with a number of structural issues facing us, it could be a very effective way of building a buffer against issues we need to deal with. These could be housing, ageing demographics and the transition to net zero. How we think about the next step of that is we need to link that towards the capacity within the economy to deliver the various aspects of that. We have an ambitious national development plan and we have a tight labour market. The issue is about understanding how we best use this. We need to measure it well, use it effectively and not end up in the position where it becomes part of current expenditure where it does create vulnerability if there was to be a change.

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