Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 19 October 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Post-budget 2023 Examination: Discussion

Mr. Mark Regan:

I will hop in on that. As with any statistical estimate, there will be some underlying variance in the forecast, but it is very clear that overall prices will not go down. As Professor Kinsella mentioned in his presentation, the consumer price index, CPI, is forecast to increase by around 7% next year, steadying then to around 1.2%. We are sort of in a new equilibrium where prices are fundamentally higher. Drawing back to the Chairman's question as to what is the optimal percentage of the budget spend on one-off payments versus structural increases and the parameters in that regard, more emphasis should certainly have been put on increasing the structural parameters in the social welfare system and less weight given to once-off measures. Whereas once-off measures are quite timely, as the Chairman mentioned, they are by definition less targeted. However, even though they are less targeted, they will, given their lump sum nature, give a larger percentage boost to low-income households by design rather than anything else. Then, drawing in the indexation point, it is fair to say that this year and, likely, next year, if indexation does not occur, there will be very high levels of inflation that may be priced into market incomes but are not priced into people who are reliant on fixed incomes, people who might have had a change of circumstances or people who are temporarily unemployed. They will see a sudden swing in their living standards, which should be avoided. People should be given certainty on their living standards. Certainly, welfare payments should be benchmarked or increased closely in line with inflation just to ensure that these price changes are priced-----