Neasa Hourigan (Dublin Central, Green Party) | Oireachtas source

I turn to the ESRI. It strikes me that a lot of the discussions we have been having about the overall effects of the budget have looked at quite marginal levels of change. I am returning to inflation. It is such a volatile situation. Obviously, in all the modelling the various groups have done and the Government itself has probably done, that inflation has been forecast. How confident is the ESRI that we have gauged that volatility correctly? I am not asking the representatives of the ESRI how they think the war in Ukraine will go; it is as boring as the modelling of inflation economically. I do not know enough about the system as to how economists actually do that. How far under the rate of inflation must incomes increase for a budget to be officially regressive?