Professor Donnacha ? Beach?in:

Not at all. Chechnya, for example, was a very popular war. It was very early in his presidency and he learned early on that he could derive political dividends from a winnable, manageable and popular war. Similarly, Georgia in 2008 was a five-day war that also was popular domestically. He got what he wanted strategically. Of course, we know what happened in the context of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. That is why I was saying that in terms of the options open to him with Ukraine, Ukraine is the end. Donbas is the means to act as a leader and the ultimate objective is to prevent Ukraine departing from that sphere of influence and joining Euro-Atlantic structures and using those conflict regions as leaders to exert pressure. It is about identifying the pressure points. I do not think it would be in his interests to inaugurate a full-scale war in Ukraine.