Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 2 February 2022
Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs
Potential Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Role of the European Union: Discussion
Professor Ben Tonra:
The Deputy asked a really good question. The only evidence I have in respect of how far Putin wants to go is that the things he has asked for are genuinely impossible. They cannot be delivered or anything like them because it would create a neighbourhood of sort of sub-sovereign states all along Russia's borders. The committee members have all been involved in negotiations. One has to consider what is in the mindset of a person who asks for that which cannot be given. Where do you go from there in terms of negotiations? Professor Ó Beacháin has spoken to more important points in that context.
I wish to touch on the point of the logic the Deputy also raised. It is somewhat perverse because from a Russian perspective, what it is actually achieving is the reverse of what it should want in logical and rational terms. For example, it is creating a conversation in Finland and Sweden about NATO membership and closer relations. It is driving the Germans away from Nord Stream 2, with all the pressure that others are putting on. One has to ask what is the perversity of the logic that is going on there. It comes to the Deputy's point about dictatorships, because Putin is not afraid of NATO. He knows NATO does not pose a threat to the Russian Federation but what do pose a threat - not to the Russian Federation but to Vladimir Putin - are democratic revolutions. That is his terror. We can have a whole different conversation about the extent to which the West - the liberal democratic world - was promoting democracy and freedom across the Continent of Europe and that, for Putin, is a genuine threat. To my mind, that is what he is fighting. That is what he is trying to prevent.
As regards Ireland and a weak point, I heard the Deputy's colleague, the Sinn Féin spokesperson on defence, speaking very well on "Morning Ireland" earlier. It is precisely the issue raised by his colleague. It is precisely that we do not even know what is happening in our airspace and seas. We do not know because we do not have the very basic equipment to do so. This has prompted and is contributing to a healthy conversation about Ireland's defence and security capacity, with whom we co-operate and when.
On a final point - I hope I do not cause offence - I refer to the international reportage on Irish fishermen taking on Moscow. It was portrayed as a cute or funny story in the US media. It was also embarrassing and a little bit shameful.
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