Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

That is part of it but much of the uncertainty is what will happen to policy. Much of the uncertainty reflects the reliance on a few big companies doing very complicated things in businesses where intellectual property is a big feature. As Dr. Casey said, there is a lot of volatility as well. We have to take that as a given. Based on that, we then have to take a cautious approach to what we do about it.

The Department of Finance has taken a step in that direction by adjusting corporation tax receipts downwards by €2 billion. That actually means the level of corporation tax in 2025 will still be higher than it was in 2019. It is not a fall in absolute terms; there are just no gains. The Department started making that assumption last autumn. Since then, the risks have increased and that is one of the reasons we think a more realistic starting point would be a downward adjustment of €3.5 billion. That is also why we argue that the Department should wind down over-reliance on corporation tax in line with that sort of profile, rather than continuing to spend until we, potentially, hit a wall and have to adjust very quickly. It is one of those unknowns we have to live with and will manage best by running a relatively prudent policy around it.