Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

Deputy Broughan asked whether we were being too sanguine about the impacts but we are concerned about the analysis. Brexit will affect the trade channel so, in the modelling exercise, we asked what trade shock would be needed to get to a collapse in the economy on the scale we saw after 2008. The answer is that it would need to be huge. Both exports and imports would be impacted so there would not be quite the same impact. If exports fall, GDP falls, but if imports also fall, GDP goes up. The 2008 crash was completely different because there was a massive credit bubble, and once that burst, there was an overwhelming collapse because the construction sector had seeped into all aspects of the economy. There was a collapse in GDP and in tax revenues etc. I do not think it will be like that but the credit collapse was over a relatively short time of between three or four years, while Brexit could impact the economy over a lifetime. There will be missed opportunities and the accumulated impact could be the same in the long run. There would be a more persistent loss to the economy over a longer period of time than the short sharp and really bad hit we took after 2008 or 2009.

Edgar Morgenroth and Martina Lawless did some work on regional issues. I agree that agriculture, agrifood, tourism and related sectors could be impacted, but the research pointed out that agriculture did not just impact the Border regions. The Munster area is very heavily reliant on agriculture, with a very strong dairy sector, while other parts of the country are very reliant on the beef sector and could also be heavily impacted by Brexit. There could be significant differences and Dublin may, on aggregate, do okay after Brexit, especially if FDI comes in and there is a lot of disruption to the financial sector in London leading to relocation to Dublin.