Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 10 April 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

ESRI Report on Ireland and Brexit: Discussion

Photo of Pearse DohertyPearse Doherty (Donegal, Sinn Fein) | Oireachtas source

Some of the headlines we have read have suggested that Brexit will create the biggest turmoil we will have experienced in our lifetime. That is not the case. This has been presented as being as big as the banking crash, but it does not fall into the ha'penny place when compared to what happened when previous Governments drove the economy off the cliff. I say that to put some context on Brexit as compared with the type of crash we experienced ten years ago.

One of the significant headline figures in the report was the impact this might have on potential job growth and job losses. It was suggested that there would be 80,000 fewer jobs in the economy if there was a no-deal Brexit. What factors led the witnesses to revise that figure upwards from 55,000 to 80,000? The previous estimate was 55,000, I believe.

There was discussion about the sectors, including the agrifood sector among others. I have not been able to get a copy of Edgar Morgenroth's report but I believe he has done some drilling down on the question of the impact on production and manufacturing jobs in particular regions. I note my native county of Donegal is already experiencing an impact on jobs as a result of Brexit. Contracts are being lost in my home parish and lay-offs are taking place. That is not isolated to one area but is happening across the board. In Killybegs the quota of fish has been caught and the factories are idle. People are being laid off because the companies are not sure whether they can catch the quota after Brexit. It is having a huge impact. Can the witnesses talk about the regional impact of Brexit in terms of jobs?

A no-deal scenario is expected to lead to higher prices for export goods, but also a higher cost in terms of production internally. Do the witnesses foresee a significant impact on inflation as a result of Brexit?

The ESRI forecasts a potential gain of €26 billion in foreign direct investment, FDI, and almost 8% of that overspill is as a result of Britain. Will the witnesses walk us through the type of FDI they expect? Are we seeing the signs of that spillover already flowing into Ireland? If that is the case, what is the scale of it?

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