Jackie Cahill (Tipperary, Fianna Fail)
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I thank the Chairman and compliment Mr. Power on his presentation. He has made a number of points which, if they come to pass, will prove extremely difficult. I agree with him that it looks like a hard Brexit will be the outcome. How will it work in practice, given the volume of trade between the two countries? On the milk processing side, the United Kingdom does not have enough capacity to process the milk it produces. Some 3 million litres a day crosses the Border. How would things work with trade tariffs in place? If having a source of cheap food is the reason it did it, it will be extremely disappointed because, leaving beef products aside, virtually everything is traded on a world market. It will not source dairy products more cheaply than it does from this country. If it thinks there is a rainbow of cheap food available for it, it is in for a huge disappointment. Will the United Kingdom just leave its farmers to go bust? The British farming sector has been under pressure for a number of years. The attitude of British farmers to the single farm payment is a lot different from the attitude here. The record of the British ministry in getting payments out is derisory. Leaving that issue aside, we have seen the red tractor and protectionism of British farmers grow in recent years, with the British consumer having a preference for a UK product.

I cannot see that changing. Scottish beef has been seriously promoted. We have seen organisations push the consumption of British milk, especially on the liquid milk side. The British are large exporters of lamb to France. Regarding the suggestion that the United Kingdom will look to New Zealand for a cheaper source of lamb, the British will have a serious job in finding a home for all the lamb they produce. I cannot see them making a decision to let their farmers go to the wall. I would be worried that the United Kingdom would adopt a more protectionist attitude towards its farmers rather than the other way round, that its attitude would be one of circling the wagons, that England has to survive on its own and that it has to protect its producers. If the United Kingdom goes down the road that Mr. Power has suggested, that will lead to land abandonment very fast because UK farmers cannot take any more punishment.

On our side there will be a €10 billion net deficit in terms of the United Kingdom's contribution to the general EU budget and the consequences that will have for us. I do not know how a hard deal in the context of the internal relationships between the two countries could work in practice. There is no doubt that our beef sector would definitely be vulnerable. The United Kingdom can source cheaper beef in other parts of the world. Mushroom growers have said that if they had a period of six to seven months, they would be able to renegotiate their deals and compensate for the fall in the value of sterling. They have said that they are getting increases in their product from the retailers. As Senator Tim Lombard said, food price inflation will become more of a factor in the United Kingdom. I believe the reverse could happen in the United Kingdom in that rather than having a cheap food policy, the British could pay more for their food with the depreciation in the value of sterling. All this is being discussed in a vacuum but the adoption of a protectionist attitude by the United Kingdom towards its farmers would be foreign to what it has done in the past, but if it does not do that, its industry will disappear off the map. I know we are in unknown territory, but I cannot see the United Kingdom or its consumers completely abandoning its farmers. The Tescos of this world have built their platform on selling British food for the British consumer and I do not see that changing just because of this decision.