Mr. Aidan Cotter:

Undoubtedly there is a major challenge ahead. Before Brexit this industry faced a challenge from the ambitious targets in Foodwise 2025 to grow exports from €11 billion to €19 billion. We have estimated that in almost any scenario we can consider, even post-Brexit, and even if it is a soft Brexit, there is a huge challenge to grow our exports to continental Europe and in particular to international markets outside the European Union. We have estimated that almost irrespective of Brexit we would have to grow our exports to continental Europe by between 40% and 70% over the next ten years. We would have to create at least three €1 billion markets in France, the Netherlands and Germany. Our exports to international markets would have to grow considerably, fourfold to China and south-east Asia; threefold to north Africa and the Middle East and double to North America and Africa. There is a huge challenge in any event to achieve our Foodwise 2025 targets. The industry was conscious of the level of ambition there, irrespective of Brexit. It was gearing itself up for that.

In any of those scenarios achieving our export targets would mean reducing our share of dependence on the UK market from its current 41% to 32% in a soft Brexit or to 23% in a hard Brexit. We will have to develop markets outside the UK. Inevitably, to achieve those hugely ambitious goals there will have to be corresponding investment and transformational initiatives to help the industry achieve those targets. We reckon that 50% of the €8 billion will have to come from the dairy sector and approximately €4 billion extra in exports over the next ten years, with the balance of €4 billion coming from the meat and livestock sector, prepared foods, beverages, seafood and horticulture in that order. With so much growth set to come from international markets outside Europe corresponding extra resources will have to be dedicated to our markets in Asia, China, the Middle East and Africa.

On the question of whether we have enough resources, our organisation expanded its head count by 20 over the past 12 months, which is the first time we have started to recover it since the contraction during the period of the public sector embargo. We had got back to a situation where we felt we were resourced to address the task in hand, then Brexit came along and now there are new challenges. It was almost one step forward and two steps backward. The Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine and the Minister are very supportive of our re-examination of our resources to ensure we are properly equipped for the period ahead. Given the challenges, it would be difficult for me to say truthfully we have enough resources. That would be to completely understate the challenge the industry is facing. We are working through the resources that might be necessary and the kind of initiatives to be undertaken to establish what level of resources will be required.

To answer the question on our beef exports for the current year, we expect them to be up 5% in volume given the number of extra cattle that have come forward. A total of 97% of our exports are going into an EU market where production grew by 3.5% or 0.25 million tonnes this year, in other words, by half the amount of our exports. It has been quite a challenging time in the market place across all the EU.

We were asked about key target markets, they are the Continent of Europe and international markets outside the European Union. Dairy is very important in China, south-east Asia, the Middle East and Africa. It is also important to get access for our beef industry into the Chinese market and we want to further develop our position in the United States.

On the issue of live exports, there is no limitation on the resources we are prepared to allocate to live exports. We spend all the funding we receive in the levies and more to support them. At the beginning of the year we meet with the live exporters and consider the challenges ahead and what initiatives need to be undertaken. We continually work towards funding any new initiatives that might help strengthen the live export trade. The recent trade missions to north Africa, Morocco and Algeria, focused on live exports and on the dairy sector. Some benefits will come out of that in time.

On the question of the UK and the retractor, there is a real challenge in our single biggest market, the UK, for the primary commodities, such as beef but our competition is primarily the potential threat from South America, Oceania or parts of North America.

Our challenge is to be ready if that threat materialises. We have perhaps two, three or four years, and it will probably take longer than two years, but that is a window of opportunity we need to use. In two or three years time, we do not want to look back and ask whether we did everything that was necessary and whether we took the right initiatives or made the right investments in the UK market to ensure we had bedded down our beef and dairy sectors so they were ready to withstand the competition that will come from low-price countries. It is a challenge that all of us in the industry, including Bord Bia and all the other stakeholders, must focus on.

I was asked whether horticulture has stabilised. I believe it is in a better situation now than it has been. There is some prospect that price increases are on their way, if they are not coming through already. From our discussions with UK retailers, there is an acute awareness of the difficulties the mushroom sector has been undergoing in recent times and that the supply base needs to be protected for the future. It is also in the interests of our customers that the supply base is protected. We are hopeful things will begin to improve in that sector.

We have invested significantly over many years in quality assurance and, more recently, in sustainability through the Origin Green programme. We have to have a point of difference from everyone else in the marketplace, given we export up to 90% of what we produce into markets that are other people's home markets. We have to have a point of difference, whether it is compared with the incumbent player or with competition from South America, South-East Asia, China or elsewhere. The Origin Green sustainability programme is unique. There is nothing like it anywhere in the world and it is our best prospect for the future. This is brand Ireland and it is something that is really valued. The feedback we are getting from the markets is extremely encouraging, and others are coming to Ireland to see how they might replicate it in their own countries. Irrespective of the challenges of quality assurance and the difficulties farmers might sometimes have about it, it is our best prospect for achieving a high return from those international markets in the future, and this applies to the Origin Green programme in particular.

Uncertainty is the only certainty, of that there is no doubt, and we are facing two or three more years of it. However, this is an industry that has, in a sense, been used to uncertainty. Some 70% of or exports go outside the eurozone, and they have always been at that level or higher. We have been exporting in a context of country volatility on an ongoing basis, although we are clearly going through a particularly acute period. Nonetheless, this is an industry that has experience in managing volatility and I am sure it will manage this as well. Undoubtedly, we have no choice but to learn to live with the volatility, for however long it lasts.

There was a question on whether the UK industry will be able to cope with this. There must be a challenge to UK farmers in terms of the direct payment levels they are currently in receipt of, and there must also be a challenge in terms of the return from the markets. They get their income from two sources: direct payments and the markets. If low price competition comes in from South America, that means their market returns will fall as well, and there will be a double whammy for the UK agriculture industry.