Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath, Labour) | Oireachtas source

At the outset, I pay tribute to Mr. Aidan Cotter for his excellent stewardship as chief executive officer of Bord Bia. I do not say that lightly. He was a year or two ahead of me in college and I was not surprised to see him reach the pinnacle he has. I wish him well in future with his family. No one knows the work Aidan Cotter and the staff of Bord Bia have done for well over three decades. They have served this country well and I have always defended them notwithstanding what were often cutting remarks from people who were certainly not as knowledgeable as they should have been.

I want to ask him a couple of questions now. One is always nice and then one asks the questions. Does Mr. Cotter agree from his economics background, and as Professor Sheehy would certainly advise him, that we are all engaged in guesstimate work? We are all going around shooting in the dark and the only certainty we have about Brexit is the uncertainty it has generated. Does he also agree that a two-year period is also optimistic by any standard? I have been saying this process will take five years or more with transitional arrangements and I notice that others have joined that chorus. I said it last April in the vacuum as we waited for the Dáil to return. It is on the record so I am not being wise after the event.

There has been a great deal of grandstanding but what one needs to do is the type of pre-emptive and preliminary work in which Bord Bia has engaged. It has done practical work to penetrate various markets. Away from that practical work, others are going around pretending they are soothsayers who know what is happening. Nobody knows what is happening and to say otherwise is only to mislead people. People are getting into a bit of a huff. It will depend on the level of market access, the type of market and whether it is a Norway situation, a Swiss situation or a WTO situation. People are trying to pretend they know in order to fill columns in newspapers when they do not have a bull's clue. A first year student of economics has a better clue. It irritates me to see that type of thing.

Does Mr. Cotter have any projections or guesstimates as to how the UK's agriculture industry will be affected by the Brexit decision, because that is a very important issue? It is the starting point. I will expand on it. Is there any assessment of the impact of the loss of the UK's significant payment of €10 billion to €11 billion to the agriculture budget?

When that falls away what will be the impact on the CAP budget and on us? The volatility of currency and the impact of exchange rates is especially noticeable in the context of the mushroom industry, which is almost totally dependent on access to the UK market for sales. I think in excess of 80% of its produce goes there. I would be worried about cattle given where I live.

Bord Bia has expressed considerable concerns about increased trade costs. These can arise due to increased regulation and administrative costs if the UK follows through and moves outside the EU. Has Bord Bia given any thought to the tariff regime that could be in place in respect of hard borders and so on, especially if we become the outer border? I know the witnesses will be only speculating.

The UK will remain in food deficit for a considerable period. It will get its food from elsewhere. Brazil and other South American countries will be in the market if the UK triggers Article 50 and leaves as it says it will, to sell beef and it will be cheaper because 20% of the beef in the UK was from Brazil in 2005 but it is now at less than 10%, so it is waiting. The Mercosur agreement countries will be in like a shot. It is an opportunity for them which will represent a significant challenge for the Irish agrifood industry as prices will be threatened. Has Bord Bia come up with any alternative scenarios in that event? Canada, New Zealand and Australia are waiting with milk, which will affect the dairy industry.

The Border and the common travel area is a question that arises in the context of so much trade back and forth, the co-location of processing units across the Border and approximately 600,000 litres of milk coming down here. That also raises the question of phytosanitary and veterinary controls. Does Bord Bia have any view to offer on that? I predicate that on the basis that the best the witnesses can do is answer from a position of lack of knowledge and they can only speculate on what might happen in the event of Brexit. Whether it is hard or soft it will affect Bord Bia's projections and the scenarios the witnesses will outline. I appreciate they cannot be held to anything.