Dr. Thomas Pierret:

First, as I said earlier, to say the Syrian army is winning is to misread the situation. It is winning in certain regions that have been identified as the stronghold of the regime, which is mainly in the centre, in the province of Homs. Second, it is not the Syrian army that is winning. Every single battle won by the regime was won with the support of Hezbollah fighters, Iraqi fighters and pro-Iranian militias.

When I spoke about gains by the opposition I was not referring to Kurdish region; I was referring to recent developments around Aleppo. The regime is winning victories, mostly around the Lebanese border because Hezbollah is willing to intervene forcefully there as it is close to Lebanon but elsewhere in the province of Aleppo, the situation is not good for the region. There have been setbacks there. I do not believe the regime could ever achieve complete victory. It cannot take the entire territory because it does not have enough loyal soldiers to do that. It has suffered from a dire lack of manpower since day one, and that is why it is using such brutal tactics. It needs to wipe a city off the map before re-taking it because it does not have enough soldiers to engage in street fighting and retake it house by house. It first expels people or starves them before moving in.

Senator Walsh said bombing the regime would be a disaster. What we have in Syria today is far more violent conflict than what we saw in Iraq in the 2000s. The monthly death toll is higher than at any point in the civil war in Iraq. Currently, it is the most violent armed conflict in the world. It is a disaster. It has displaced 40% of the Syrian population. I cannot see how it could it be worse.

On the idea that the regime is providing something positive, we should compare it with that of Saddam Hussein. Before 2003, Iraq was a stable country. It was run by a ruthless, brutal regime but there was no war. We have an actual war in Syria. In terms of Damascus, it would be like saying that inside the beltway everything is fine but outside it one cannot find a building standing because all of them have been shelled for two years. Is that the kind of security they are providing?

We hear comparisons with Libya. Libya is in a difficult, chaotic situation. There is violence in Libya, but most Syrians dream of a situation like Libya. What is the monthly death toll in Libya? It might be dozens at most but it is very low in comparison with Syria. The problem is that we cannot hope for anything better.

Using military threat against the regime to obtain the end of the most blatant violations of human rights such as barrel bombings and starvation would not be a disaster. That would save lives.