Dr. Donal Donovan:

There is a difference between an estimate or short-term forecast on what one thinks is happening right now, what will happen in the next six to nine months and what will happen in the remainder of the year and longer-term forecasts. One can have a fairly good idea about these because matters are already in train which will produce an outcome and one will have a fairly good idea of it. I honestly think that in years two, three and four it is perfectly possible to provide a list of good reasons it could turn out and a list of very plausible reasons it could not do so. Totally unknown issues are involved, over which the forecasters have no particular control or, to be quite honest, no particular insider knowledge. Nobody sitting in Ireland knows the effect of President Barroso's call for this or that.