Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

In our report, we point to there being clear risks, given the pattern of revisions. This has shifted from the domestic side, where the evidence of stabilisation means that the forecasts are more reasonable than they were, to the international side. One should also make a distinction. Consider a country like France, the Government of which systematically overestimates GDP in its forecasts. No one else forecasts similar growth rates. Clearly, there is a problem. Our counterparts on the new fiscal council in France have been critical of its Government for making unreasonable forecasts.

We view the Irish forecasts as being plausible. Although they may not be right, they make sense and do not result from a process that is inherently biased towards optimism in a purely political way. People have misread the balance sheet recession not just in the Department of Finance, but also elsewhere. This has also been the case internationally. The more naive errors-----