Professor Peter Shirlow:

As Professor Phinnemore said, I have also submitted a paper so I will not bore the committee with facts and figures. There are some important points to be made more generally. What Brexit has shown us has been policy making that has not been based on evidence. It has been ideologically driven and it has created a lot of friction, not only on this island but also between these islands and within Great Britain.

One of the things we have to understand also is what happens next. Of course, none of us in this room knows what the EU-UK negotiations will produce. What is critically important is what I have heard throughout the Brexit period, that people are protecting the Good Friday Agreement. I am never clear what that actually means because many of the people who say they are protecting the Good Friday Agreement are actually undermining it or presenting a very singular idea of what it is. It is critically important to understand the context of where Northern Ireland is today. Since the Good Friday Agreement, Northern Ireland is clearly within new relationships that are based on inter-dependence.

As somebody from a pro-union background it is clear to me that building relationships across this island is critical for economic prosperity. It is critical for reconciliation and it is critical for building futures. We have to understand that what we are protecting here are the inter-dependencies that were created by joining the European Single Market and by the Good Friday Agreement. The shared island initiative, etc., are critically important, not specifically related to the question of Brexit, but they are critically important.

It is also important to understand where Northern Ireland's place will be. Nobody has mapped and modelled what the impact of the protocol and Brexit is. The constitutional and ideological politics have foregone any rational understanding of Northern Ireland's place within its North-South relationship, its east-west relationship and also within its relationship with the European Union. There has been a lack of political maturity to understand the issues that are trading and constitutional issues.

How do we think of this if the protocol is resolved? Northern Ireland is part of the UK. The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world, although maybe not for long the way things are going. It is increasingly embedded in and connected with the Republic of Ireland, an economy which has high levels of growth and is a global leader in research, development and innovation. It is linked in a unique way, in the context of these islands, to the European Union which offers a market of 450 million people. Where is the discourse and the dialogue about this being the opportunity to create a peace dividend that drives a new society in Northern Ireland? What we have had is a politics that talks about a hard border, taking our country back, a line down the Irish Sea, etc. Politically, nobody comes out of this smelling of roses but I think some come out worse than others.

It is also critically important that we understand what the Good Friday Agreement has created. Belfast is now the seventh best performing out of 179 regions in the UK. Northern Ireland is now the sixth fastest growing region in skills and high tech jobs. It is now a world leader in hydrogen technology, cybercrime and fin tech. There have been significant changes that have paralleled what I am about to say.

In 1972, the police in Northern Ireland seized 20,000 kg of explosives. Last year, they seized 1 kg. There has been a 90% plus decline in violence related to the conflict. In the last 15 years, there has been a 60% plus decline in sectarian crime. Is it not strange how that parallels growth in jobs, investments and wages? What we are actually protecting here is the politics of a protocol, which recognises those inter-dependencies and which is based upon building that economic future. That is to say, this is linked to the peace dividend.

I do not believe we are going back to conflict. I do not believe that we are going back to those circumstances but most certainly the stability that we have had has been important. Unlike the civic and economic sectors, politics in Northern Ireland is failing. You can not have had that transformation in our economy. A quarter of Belfast was bombed during the Troubles. Now it is one of the fastest growing economies in these islands, so these things are critically important.

What is also important is the issue of talking to the people. Professor Phinnemore referred to the surveys they have conducted and the surveys we have conducted. One of the things we found in our surveys was much more consensus between unionists and nationalists about the way to proceed. As Professor Phinnemore alluded to, most unionists and most nationalists and those who are neither believe the best way to solve this problem is for the UK and the EU to negotiate. In all the surveys we have conducted, nobody - unionists, nationalists and neither - wants checks on goods going from North to South or from east to west. In fact, unionists are more in favour of there not being checks North to South than nationalists who are in favour of east to west checks. There is a misconception that the unionist community is simply pitted against Europe, the protocol and the Irish and British Governments. That is simply not what we are finding in our surveys. As I said, all communities oppose checks, east to west and North to South. That is fantasy, of course. We understand that but it shows what is not being presented by the media. None of the things I have said about the economic growth, the decline of violence and the issue of inter-community support are being reported. It goes to the point made by Professor Hayward originally of a narrative emerging which is not based upon evidence. Surprising that, it sounds very like Brexit.

There is a moment here for this committee to start to engage in a proper evidence-based approach to the issues that affect Northern Ireland. There is great support for the red and green channel ideas, which I think emerged within this part of the island, and things like that. One of the things we have to get across here is what we are protecting. We are not protecting ideologies. What we are protecting is the capacity of Northern Ireland to function as a better society. The protocol and the politics of the protocol have undermined that capacity. Whether one is a nationalist or a unionist, a functioning Northern Ireland is healthy for this island either way. It is critically important. We have to understand the people of Northern Ireland are no longer so tied to their unionist and nationalist identities that they behave in ways that we think are homogenous. There is a great deal of flexibility within the unionist community, in particular about these issues. There is inter-community support.

Even with the mitigations that were offered by Europe last year that we tested, even 60% plus of TUV voters supported the mitigations. When you ask the questions about what are the issues that affect you in Northern Ireland, the protocol and the constitutional issue are very far down that list. What we need is pragmatic leadership. We need evidence-based approaches.

Hopefully, with the new dispensation in Downing Street we will have a more flexible process. I do not think we will and I think things will rumble on for a while but this has got to be what has failed. There was no reaction from the Assembly which mapped out futures. Let us think about it this way. If the protocol works and Northern Ireland has this unique relationship and it has a bonanza economically, where is the skills strategy? When we talk about constitutional issues, we completely forego the next stage in developing and building a society. Tis is critically important. I do not think it is an issue of violence and I do not think it is a case of going back to the old days but it is an illustration that politics is not working. It certainly will not work when it is driven by high-level ideological commitment. The ecosystem of Northern Ireland needs something more subtle, more planned and more agreed.