Dr. Christy Ann Petit:

I thank the Chair and the committee for the invitation and the opportunity to speak to it. Our remarks will be based on the research and engagement activities of the DCU Brexit institute over recent months. We wish to speak about three main points.

First, we will give an overview of some issues in the governance and implementation of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and the protocol. Second, we will elaborate on the improvement of EU-UK relations in the context of the Parliamentary Partnership Assembly. My colleague, Dr. Ian Cooper, will talk about this. Third, we will mention some practical solutions to implementation issues.

The EU is, and will most likely remain, inflexible on the fact that the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland was a commonly agreed solution designed to protect the stability of Northern Ireland, as we already heard, but also the integrity of the Single Market. Despite the EU’s refusal to reopen the protocol, it has shown flexibility regarding its operation. Indeed, acknowledging some of the practical difficulties in its implementation, the EU put forward a package of constructive proposals in October 2021. Overall, the outcomes would simplify and facilitate trade, in particular the movement of goods from Great Britain to Northern Ireland, stressing that the EU wishes to work on joint solutions with the UK, including some safeguards, surveillance and enforcement mechanisms. However, these proposals were not discussed with the UK from February until October 2022, when technical negotiations restarted.

The EU approach contrasts sharply with the unilateral approach taken by the UK with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. This Bill, as the committee is aware, is now being considered by the House of Lords. It would dis-apply some elements of the protocol and delegate powers to ministers to make new laws. The EU’s firmly held view is that this Bill undermines legally binding commitments set in the withdrawal agreement. This is also the opinion of European Commission Vice-President Šefovi. If the Bill is adopted, the reactions of the EU could hypothetically range from mild to strong forms of retaliation, from activating the level playing field clauses and articles from the TCA to, in the worst-case scenario, terminating the withdrawal agreement altogether.

Let us make one point very clear. The EU has no interest in starting a trade war with the UK. Nor does it want to come to a situation that would have been equivalent to a no deal scenario, if the TCA were to be suspended or terminated. Moreover, the UK economy has already suffered greatly from the market and political turmoil following the mini budget proposal. I will allow my colleague, Dr. Ian Cooper to follow with the second point.