Ken O'Flynn (Cork North-Central, Independent Ireland Party)
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172. To ask the Minister for Finance the long-term fiscal risks identified by his Department in relation to rising recurrent spending, falling windfall corporation tax receipts, and age-related expenditure, in the context of IFAC's warning that the State is 'budgeting like there is no tomorrow'; and if he will publish any departmental risk-management plans. [67754/25]

Simon Harris (Wicklow, Fine Gael)
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I have noted IFAC’s concerns on the risks to the Irish public finances. My Department has published several analytical pieces over recent years that identify risks and vulnerabilities which might jeopardise the sustainability of the public finances.

Recently my Department published Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065. This analysis explores in detail the key drivers of Ireland’s economy and public finances over the next forty years. The report finds that population ageing and slowing economic growth will have considerable impacts on our public finances in the decades ahead. The cost of health and long-term care services will rise, as will the cost of pensions, while there is a risk that Ireland will be unable to rely on exceptionally high levels corporation tax receipts in the medium-to-long term.

Steps can be taken to mitigate upward pressures on our debt levels, by controlling public finances, supporting improved productivity levels and driving efficiencies. There are existing policy measures which are enhancing future fiscal sustainability including: the updated National Development Plan which commits €275 billion to public capital investment in the period up to 2035. Furthermore, the establishment of the Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund, has provided the State with two funds for saving current budgetary surpluses to help address future expenditure pressures. Finally, the roll-out of the pension auto-enrolment, will serve as a critical aspect of managing future costs to the State by assisting the public in preparing for retirement.

However, this will only partly address challenges and as Future Forty emphasises, we must use the next ten years as a window of opportunity to improve efficiencies, increase our resilience and enact structural reforms to ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.

Therefore, dealing with these challenges requires appropriate medium-term planning to safeguard the public finances while still acknowledging the need to address infrastructural deficits. In this context, I am working with the Taoiseach and Minister Chambers to finalise our Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, which we hope to publish shortly. This plan, setting out the fiscal strategy to 2030, will support progress on implementing the key social and economic priorities of Government - as set out in the Programme for Government - while delivering on our commitment to sustainable public finances.