Malcolm Byrne (Wicklow-Wexford, Fianna Fail)
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390. To ask the Minister for Finance the level of foresight or future planning that operates within his Department; who is responsible for long-term planning; the input these individuals or teams have into Departmental policy and practice; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [61661/25]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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The Department of Finance is committed to enhancing our preparedness for the future, identifying potential challenges and opportunities before they arise and assessing potential policy responses.

The recent publication of Future Forty reflects the significant importance of foresight in the Department’s work. Future Forty comprises over 18 months of research and is a first of its kind assessment of Ireland’s long-term economic and fiscal drivers; producing over 2,000 scenarios and acting as a guide to inform us of the major challenges that our economy and public finances will face and the opportunities that we must exploit.

The policy considerations presented in Future Forty will help inform our policy-making choices on how best to address long-term challenges and improve our resilience, before the window for action narrows.

Previous horizon scanning work by the Department’s Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting unit, provides an overview of long-run growth potential to 2050, subsequently fed into Future Forty’s scenarios. This unit continues to undertake research on the economy’s medium-to-long-run capacity and produces regular short-to-medium term forecasts on the expected trajectory of the Irish economy for Budget and the Annual Progress Report. These forecasts provide crucial insight and context for policy decisions.

The Department undertakes proactive research alongside other Departments, agencies and stakeholders on the critical issue of climate action, as part of the whole-of-Government commitment outlined in Climate Action Plan 2025. The Department has published work relating to the potential impact of the green transition on exchequer tax returns (including carbon tax) and conducts green budgeting as part of the annual Budget process to document the impact of fiscal policy on this transition.

Finally, it is worth pointing out the impact of Departmental horizon scanning has had on policy. A few years ago, the Department undertook a piece of analysis highlighting the budgetary cost of ageing and other structural changes. On foot of this analysis, the previous Government established the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund.

The Financial Services Division continues to engage with the ESRI and the Department of Public Expenditure, Infrastructure, Public Services, Reform and Digitalisation through a Joint Research Programme to advance our macroeconomic and fiscal analysis of climate change using the ESRI's I3E (Ireland, Environment, Energy and Economy) computable general equilibrium model.

Furthermore, the Department’s Corporate Governance Division oversees the development and implementation of the Department’s Statement of Strategy, which guides the annual business planning process for the Department as it outlines the strategic goals and priorities.

A new Statement of Strategy for the period 2025-2028 was completed in January 2025, which sets out the Department’s mission to lead in the achievement of the Government’s economic, fiscal and financial policy goals, having regard to the commitments set out in the Programme for Government – Securing Ireland’s Future.