Naoise Ó Muirí (Dublin Bay North, Fine Gael)
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552. To ask the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform the progress made by his Department in establishing a Unit for Future Planning; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [58760/25]

Jack Chambers (Dublin West, Fianna Fail)
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I wish to advise the Deputy that my Department continues to incorporate a longer-term perspective across its priority work streams in the context of the implementation of its Statement of Strategy 2025-28. One of the key enablers set out in the Strategy is focusing on long-term strategic priorities and risk management.

In this context, my Department published a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework in September. This is a multi-year public expenditure planning exercise and supports assessment of the resource implications of future policy decisions over the period 2025-2030. The framework utilises three pillars: fiscal sustainability, spending adequacy and spending efficiency. The framework is based on analysis of past trends and consideration of risks and opportunities, alongside development of forward-looking scenarios. The scenarios set out in the framework are indicative only and based on a number of variable assumptions. Their purpose is to illustrate a range of options for public expenditure based on previously observed trends and known cost drivers.

The report identifies opportunities and risks across 9 cross-cutting policy areas impacting on public expenditure at present and into the future including Infrastructure, Sustainable Economic Growth and Competitiveness, Social Inclusion and the Irish Welfare System, Demographic Change, Skills and Labour Market, Disability, Climate Response, Digitalisation and Technological Change and National Security. The report also examines three key areas for future expenditure management encompassing governance, value for money and policy evaluation.

There are benefits to a medium-term approach. It will facilitate enhanced consideration of the impact and time taken to deliver policy changes. It will also enable better planning and effective prioritisation alongside increased transparency on the costs of delivering critical public services.

As the Deputy will be aware, my Department also managed the 2025 National Development Plan Review, which sets out departmental capital ceilings to 2030 and overall capital investment out to 2035. The NDP review is the plan to secure Ireland's future, to transform the country, build more housing, upgrade water and energy infrastructure, deliver more roads and provide better public transport. The revised departmental ceilings provide €102.4 billion in capital investment over the period 2026-2030, with an overall investment of €275.4 billion out to 2035 and were arrived at following considerable analysis, engagement and deliberation across Government and within my own Department.

Other examples of initiatives by my Department to support longer-term thinking include those by the Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service with strategic policy discussion events on long term trends such as demographic change and a pilot programme of strategic foresight activities that was run in conjunction with the OECD to raise awareness of the uses of strategic foresight in policy development, connected to the Better Public Services transformation strategy.

More broadly, the Government has committed to planning and providing for the future through the Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund. In addition, the Department of Finance is expected to publish Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065 shortly, which will consider how a broad range of economic and fiscal drivers might affect Ireland over the next forty years. Future Forty details these long-term challenges and opportunities to provide a long-term outlook, with the aim of facilitating and informing strategic, future-focused decision-making.

My Department will maintain a strong focus on these key long-term priorities as it implements its Statement of Strategy over the next three years.