George Lawlor (Wexford, Labour)
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25. To ask the Minister for Finance to provide an estimate of the number of jobs in Ireland that may be at risk due to the 15% tariff imposed by the United States on EU goods; the measures being considered to mitigate this impact; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50735/25]

Paschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
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The EU and US have now reached a deal on reciprocal trade. While the imposition of tariffs is, of course, regrettable, this deal represents a more optimal outcome for households and firms than the alternative landscape that would have almost certainly included higher tariffs, scope for retaliation and escalation and ultimately a higher degree of uncertainty.

Having said that, the introduction of tariffs will, of course, weigh on growth in employment over the coming years.

Indeed, my Department and the ESRI published analysis in March which assessed the potential impact of a range of different tariff scenarios. Overall, the paper estimated that the domestic economy would be around 1-2 per cent below the no-tariff baseline over the medium-term depending on the scenario.

The slowdown in domestic growth would be accompanied by lower-than-assumed employment growth, which was estimated to be around 2 to 3 per cent lower compared to a no-tariff baseline. Put differently, the level of employment would be around 55,000 to 85,000 lower compared to a scenario in which tariffs are not introduced over the medium-term. It should be stressed that employment is still expected to expand in these scenarios, but at a slower pace than would otherwise be the case.

My Department will publish updated macroeconomic forecasts alongside the Budget next month, which will inter alia incorporate the estimated impact of the introduction of 15 per cent tariffs on the Irish economy.

Given the more challenging external backdrop, it is even more important that we boost the resilience of the Irish economy. That is why Budget 2026 will focus on investment. This will help maintain competitiveness and boost productivity which is the foundation for long-term improvements in living standards.

Indeed, the Government has already been making significant strides in this regard. In July, Government set out in the National Development Plan its plan to invest in the strategic objectives of energy, water, housing and transport.

More recently, the Taoiseach, the Tánaiste and Minister Burke launched the Government’s Action Plan on Competitiveness and Productivity - a whole-of-Government plan focusing on the domestic drivers of competitiveness.

Last month, the Government launched the Action Plan on Market Diversification which outlines the key areas in which we need to focus our efforts to ensure continued resilience and diversification. Finally, we must continue to build up our fiscal buffers including through transfers to the Future Ireland Fund and the Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund.