Ken O'Flynn (Cork North-Central, Independent Ireland Party)
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749. To ask the Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection if his Department has undertaken analysis on the way in which the projected doubling of the older population over the next 25 years will impact demand for social protection supports; and if so, whether long-term funding models have been identified. [48363/25]

Dara Calleary (Mayo, Fianna Fail)
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My Department is acutely aware of the potential impacts of the projected demographic changes on social protection supports, particularly in relation to the funding of State pensions.

The previous Government established the Pensions Commission in November 2020 to examine the sustainability of the State Pension system and the Social Insurance Fund in light of the projected demographic changes.

The Commission's Report, which was published on 7th October 2021, took account of an assessment of various analyses of population, labour force and expenditure projections and set out recommendations to address the sustainability of the State pension system. The Commission’s report included a range of recommendations for addressing the increase in costs including the gradual increase in the State pension age and increases in social insurance contribution rates.

Following on from the Pensions Commission's recommendations, a number of State pension reforms were enacted in the Social Welfare (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act 2023, which represented the biggest ever structural reform of the Irish State pension system.

In order to address the future sustainability of the Social Insurance Fund, the then Government decided not to increase the State pension age but instead to implement a series of gradual and incremental increases in PRSI rates across all three contributors to the Social Insurance Fund - employees, employers and the self-employed. These increases total 0.7% between 2024 and 2028, with increases after that point to be considered based on the most up-to-date data available from the next Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund.

Independently of the work carried out by the Pensions Commission, my Department assesses all factors relating to the State Pension system and its sustainability under the Actuarial Review of the Social Insurance Fund - from which the State Pension (Contributory) is paid. The Actuarial Review must be conducted every five years. The last Actuarial Review was published in March 2023. A consistent finding of the Actuarial Reviews is that the Fund will experience significant long term sustainability challenges. This is mainly driven by the changing demographics, particularly the ageing of our population and the decreasing pensioner support ratio (i.e. the ratio between the number of older people and the number of working age people).

This Actuarial Review will continue to be undertaken every five years and will look at the sustainability of the Social Insurance Fund including projected future numbers of older people qualifying for State Pension (Contributory) and the required increases in PRSI rates to support this expenditure.