Sinéad Gibney (Dublin Rathdown, Social Democrats)
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184. To ask the Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade if his Department will conduct an impact assessment on the potential application of tariffs between the EU and US markets; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [40672/25]

Simon Harris (Wicklow, Fine Gael)
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The EU and the US represents the largest bilateral trading relationship, with €4.4 billion worth of goods and services crossing the Atlantic each day. In the context of this highly important trading relationship, it is clear that imposition of large additional tariffs by the US would significantly affect Ireland’s export base.

The Deputy will already be aware of modelling published in March 2025 by the ESRI, in collaboration with the Department of Finance, which estimates Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) falling by 3.5% and 2% below a ‘no-tariff’ baseline respectively over the next 5 to 7 years based on various tariff scenarios.

At the Government Trade Forum on 2 July, Minister Paschal Donohoe T.D. presented updated modelling from the Department of Finance of the impacts arising from recent trade developments including on tariffs. The Government’s assessment is that the economy remains robust and will continue to grow in the short to medium term, albeit at a slightly slower pace.

The European Commission has been clear that they are still working towards the conclusion of a deal as soon as possible and in advance of the deadline of 1 August.

Our objective remains agreement on a mutually beneficial deal that works for both sides. We want to reach an agreement in principle which will give much needed certainty to businesses operating on both sides of the Atlantic. In this framework my priority is to achieve zero for zero arrangements for as many sectors as possible.

The EU is at the negotiating table and will remain there. Negotiations are at an advanced stage. Now is the time to redouble our efforts and to seek to achieve positive results in the time available.