Joe Cooney (Clare, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context

798. To ask the Minister for Health if funding will be provided to deliver the required acute hospital capacity as determined by the ESRI acute demand projections for each hospital in Ireland; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [37339/25]

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill (Dún Laoghaire, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context

The Department of Health is committed to building a demand and capacity modelling capability, necessary for any modern health system. The Department commissioned the ESRI as part of the Department of Health-ESRI ‘Joint Research Programme in Healthcare Reform’ to undertake a new Capacity Review to inform and increase our capability in long-term strategic planning.

The ESRI has built out their Hippocrates projection model that provides base year estimates and projections of demand, capacity and expenditure. The Hippocrates projection modelling estimates activity rates on a 2023 baseline by age and sex. Demand is then projected by multiplying activity rates by projected population in 2040. Various assumptions and scenarios are applied to give a range of projections for services and bed capacity.

The 2025 Capacity Review is projecting future demand (at a National and Health Region level) for: Public Acute Hospitals; General Practice services; and Older Persons services. These are projected to 2040, aligned with the National Planning Framework. These findings will make our planning process more responsive to new data, evidence, and policies as they emerge, helping to inform future policy decisions and interventions.

The Capacity Review will not be a one-off standalone piece of work, but rather the Hippocrates projection model will be developed over time to allow for the inclusion of future additional data (e.g. census 2026) and policy considerations as required, to produce regular capacity projections in the future.

The ESRI report on public acute hospitals highlights the capacity challenges we face in meeting the needs of our growing and ageing population. Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce will require careful long-term planning. We are already making significant strides to increase patient capacity. Between 2020 and 2024, we opened 1,218 new acute inpatient beds, and the Programme for Government has committed to delivering thousands more through the acute bed capacity expansion plan, new surgical hubs, and elective treatment centres. With unprecedented uplift in funding and workforce increases in recent years, we are targeting future capital investment where it is needed most. Indeed, the Hospital In-Patient Bed Capacity Plan published in 2024 aligns with the review by ESRI. Funding of this capacity is being considered in the context of the National Development Plan review underway. Immediate future funding requirements are considered by the Department as part of the annual Estimates process.

While the required capacity increase is substantial, ESRI’s report also considers health policies that reduce potential demand. Investing in improved population health, increased productivity, and reducing avoidable hospitalisations will help us make the best use of bed capacity in the future. Continued implementation of Sláintecare will shift care away from hospital settings, better meeting future demand and delivering care to those who need it.