Seán Fleming (Laois, Fianna Fail)
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47. To ask the Minister for Health her response to the ESRI’s health service capacity review on future capacity requirements for public acute hospitals; and if she will make a statement on the matter. [34615/25]

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill (Dún Laoghaire, Fine Gael)
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The Department of Health is committed to building a demand and capacity modelling capability, necessary for any modern health system. The Department commissioned the ESRI as part of the Department of Health-ESRI ‘Joint Research Programme in Healthcare Reform’ to develop this modelling capability and support the Department through a new Capacity Review to inform longer-term strategic planning.

The ESRI has built out their Hippocrates projection model that provides base year estimates and projections of demand, capacity and expenditure. The Hippocrates model is a tool that can: inform health and social service planning in Ireland; inform financial planning for the healthcare system; inform planning for capacity, services and staffing; identify future demand pressures; and provide a framework in which to analyse the effects of potential system changes and reforms.

The Hippocrates projection modelling estimates activity rates on a 2023 baseline by age and sex and taking into account utilisation of services. Demand is then projected by multiplying activity rates by projected population in 2040 to align with the National Planning Framework. Various assumptions and scenarios are applied to give a range of projections for services and bed capacity. These findings will make our planning process more responsive to new data, evidence, and policies as they emerge, helping to inform future policy decisions and interventions.

The Capacity Review will not be a one-off stand-alone piece of work, but rather the Hippocrates projection model will be developed over time to allow for the inclusion of future additional data (e.g. census 2026) and policy considerations as required, to produce regular capacity projections in the future.

The ESRI report on public acute hospitals highlights the capacity challenges we face in meeting the needs of our growing and ageing population. Increasing bed numbers and the necessary resources and workforce will require careful long-term planning. We are already making significant strides to increase patient capacity. Between 2020 and 2024, the Health Service opened 1,218 new acute inpatient beds, and the Programme for Government has committed to continue to deliver much needed acute in-patient bed capacity. With unprecedented uplift in funding and workforce increases in recent years, we are targeting future capital investment where it is needed most. Indeed, the Hospital In-Patient Bed Capacity Plan published in 2024 aligns with the review by ESRI and funding of this capacity is being considered in the context of the National Development Plan review underway.

While it sets out projected capacity ranges, the ESRI’s report also considers health policies that reduce potential demand. Investing in improved population health, increased productivity, reducing avoidable hospitalisations and moving care into the community will help us make the best use of acute in-patient bed capacity to meet future demand.